Eskom still not producing enough power to meet typical demand – energy analyst

Eskom is still on a good trajectory, according to an expert, who insists last week’s representation of the best performance in over 400 days was not because of the Rugby World Cup, but the exceptionally low demand and considerable peaking effort by the systems operator.

The utility announced on Sunday that load shedding was back in full swing – at stages 2 and 3 until further notice, with stage 2 implemented from 4pm -4pm yesterday.

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After this, stage 2 and stage 3 load shedding would be rotated in the familiar pattern (stage 3 from 4pm-5am and stage 2 from 5am4pm) indefinitely – ending the longest streak of no load shedding since permanent outages started in late 2022.

Eskom sets record

Energy analyst Linda Alexandre said Eskom set a record by breaching the emergency margin of 2.2GW for three consecutive days, starting on 24 October.

“Although we cannot sing and dance because we are not yet out of the woods – and honestly Eskom’s trajectory can change at any given time – we are just seeing a lot of generation in this period, which has been consistent, and for that we should commend them,” she said.

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“However, Eskom is still not producing enough power to meet typical demand. So it continues to operate under pressure. Until then we cannot say whether or not our future is bright.”

Electricity Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said improved performance of Eskom’s generating fleet was beginning to turn the tide against load shedding.

Improved performance

“Generation performance continues to improve from the May 2023 days of 27 410MW [generation] to 28 883MW in October month to date,” said.

“Last week, we saw generation breach the psychological mark of 30 000MW, largely buoyed by the return to service of Kusile units 3 and 1 over the past month. This improved generation and lower-than-projected demand has allowed for an exceptional increase in planned outages or good maintenance.

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“The increased planned outages means we are improving the overall performance capacity of the fleet, improving reliability and efficiency and steadily ensuring that we navigate to an equilibrium between demand and supply buffered by healthy reserve margin.”

Ramokgopa said load shedding would continue to take a heavy toll on South Africans but, at the same time, expressed confidence the task of lowering and eventually ending load shedding was well underway.

– reitumetsem@citizen.co.za