Eskom anticipates lower stages of load shedding over festive season until early next year

Eskom has hinted at a summer period with lower stages of load shedding.

The power utility’s acting CEO Calib Cassim said the country can expect lower stages of load shedding towards the end of the year until March 31, 2024. 

During Eskom’s State of the System media briefing held on Wednesday, Cassim acknowledged the impact load shedding had on the country and on the livelihoods of South Africans. 

Low stages of load shedding

He said Eskom aims to keep load shedding as low as possible, with the aim of not exceeding Stage 4 by maintaining unplanned load losses within the 14,500MW scenario for this year’s summer outlook.

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“We enter the summer period against the backdrop of some positive developments during the winter period. We were able to contain the intensity of load shedding below levels that were anticipated in our winter outlook, although we still had to implement Stage 6 for 39 days out of a total of 153 days due to higher-than-expected levels of unplanned outages. 

“We were also able to suspend load shedding during the day in the June month, limiting it only to the afternoon through the evening peak until midnight, thereby lessening the impact. However, we concede that much still needs to be done,” said Cassim.

Power stations performance

Generation group executive Bheki Nxumalo said Medupi and Lethabo power stations had shown consistently good performance.

He said Medupi and Lethabo achieved an average of 85% energy availability factor from June and July, respectively.

Other positive developments include Unit 1 at Koeberg Power Station, which is said to be on track to return to service on November 3. However, this would not add incremental megawatts as Unit 2 will undergo the steam generator replacement on November 7. 

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Nxumalo said the construction of temporary stacks at Kusile is ahead of schedule and will enable the return of Unit 3 by the end of this week once the last approval is received, effectively two months earlier than planned. This will be followed by units 1 and 2. Unit 5 will be synchronised to the grid by December. 

Combined, according to Nxumalo, the Kusile units will contribute 2,880MW, alleviating the pressure on the power system and further reducing load shedding towards the end of the year. 

He said although Eskom has not achieved the targeted reduction in unplanned load losses, there has been a declining trend.

“We are intensifying our efforts to reduce the unplanned load losses, improve the energy availability factor, and meet the electricity demand with minimal usage of open-cycle gas turbine plants. The return of Kusile is central in this regard,” Nxumalo said.

Three unplanned loss scenarios

Group executive for transmission Segomoco Scheppers said the summer outlook predicts three unplanned loss scenarios of 14,500MW, 16,000MW, and 17,500MW. The unplanned loss of 14,500MW is the most likely scenario, with an anticipated 116 days of load shedding at stages not exceeding Stage 4. 

The second scenario projects a loss of 16,000MW, resulting in 187 days of load shedding, mostly at Stage 5 and at Stage 6 for 29 days.

The third is the projected loss of 17,500MW with 211 days of load shedding, 30 of them at Stage 7. 

“The current projections, which are informed by previous summers’ performance and the generation recovery initiatives instill confidence that the current summer outlook is realistic,” said Scheppers.

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