Despite infections surge, no ‘significant increase’ in deaths – Mkhize

In one of the most positive government statements about the Covid-19 crisis since it started in March, Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize is “cautiously optimistic” that the infection rates have “plateaued” in a number of provinces. The focus is now on preventing or containing a “second wave” of the coronavirus.

Mkhize said yesterday: “We can never overemphasise the importance of good human behaviour and the impact it can have on flattening the curve. The containment measures being implemented are assisting … we must not be complacent. The real risk of experiencing the second wave of the pandemic remains … so containment measures must never be abandoned.

“Until we are completely safe, we will keep reviewing restrictions and if necessary, certain restrictions will still remain in place.”

His words came against a background of a steady decline in the number of “active cases” in the country – the total number of infections, less the deaths and recoveries. These numbers have gone down by more than 20,000 in the past week.

However, Mkhize and the government were immediately attacked by Economic Freedom Fighters deputy president Floyd Shivambu, who accused the ANC of “deliberate distortion” of the official data because, he said, the number was declining due to fewer tests being done, rather than from containment. The data could support Shivambu’s argument.

The number of new cases has dropped from 13,944 on 24 July, when 52,382 tests were done, to 8,195 new cases on 2 August, when 34,794 tests were done. On 4 August, the number of new cases was 4,456, when 19,507 tests were done.

However, according to Mkhize: “The question that has been raised is whether the plateau that is observed in some provinces is due to reduced testing numbers or if, indeed, less people are becoming infected with coronavirus. To assess this, we have looked at other key indicators which are that:

“We have seen reduced hospital admissions and [persons under investigation] presenting in health facilities;

“We have not breached hospital capacity; and

“Despite the surge, we have not seen a significant increase in deaths. Whilst we are cautiously optimistic, it is still too early for us to make definite conclusions regarding the observed decline. We need to continue to track all these indicators and ensure that our testing capacity reflects a realist picture of our epidemiological status.

“We will, therefore, only know for sure when there is a consistent decline over a period.”

Whether the country stayed in Level 3 or moved to Level 2 of the lockdown was immaterial, because progress in fighting the spread of Covid-19 was dependent on people’s behaviour in adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions.

According to Wits University epidemiology Professor Shabir Madhi, these included social distancing, wearing of face masks and using sanitiser.

“It is the behaviour of people which is influencing what is happening at different settings. Levels make no difference,” he said.

Different provinces were at different stages in terms of the outbreak, with the Western Cape having already peaked and “now on a downward trajectory”.

“The Eastern Cape and Gauteng are probably at the peak right now and that peak will continue for the next three to four weeks,” said Madhi.

“KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, Mpumalanga and Limpopo have not yet peaked.”

– news@citizen.co.za

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