Cut-off low heads for Cape but warm and dry in interior

Rain is not likely in the first two weeks of spring, but there is a possibility of snow in parts of the Western Cape.

Vox forecaster Annette Botha said there were two cold fronts and a cut-off low headed towards South Africa on spring day today, but they will miss the interior provinces completely.

Botha said the highest expected temperatures on spring day were 30°C in Mbombela and 29°C in Pretoria.

“It will be cold in the Cape province but a lovely and warm spring day in the northeastern parts,” she said.

Botha said no rain was forecast for Gauteng, Free State, North West and Mpumalanga.

“The Cape provinces and KwaZulu-Natal can expect some rain over the weekend,” she said.

Botha said by Monday, the cut-off low from the south would bring rain and a significant drop in temperatures, dropping freezing levels low enough for the possibility of spring snow in the Western Cape mountain areas.

“It could still change,” she said.

SA Weather Service forecaster Molebohene Manthata said this would be a drier summer season.

According to the seasonal forecast, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso) was currently in an El Nino state and, according to the latest predictions, was expected to persist through most of the summer months.

“Enso’s typical impact on Southern Africa is in favour of generally drier and warmer conditions from October to March,” Manthata said.

Manthata said the multimodel rainfall forecast indicated above-normal rainfall for most of the country during midspring and late-spring.

“The early summer, from November to January, indicates below-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country and above-normal rainfall for the northeast,” she said.

Manthata said minimum and maximum temperatures this spring and summer were expected to be mostly above normal countrywide.

TLU SA’s general manager Bennie van Zyl said the farmers had had fairly good rain this past winter over large parts of the country.

“The above-average rainfall gave us underground moisture which is always good for the new season.

“Especially after all the fires, it is critically important that we get new grass growth there,” he said.

Van Zyl said what was most important was that it rained as soon as possible.

“The problem is if it rains too early, then you get a midsummer drought afterwards which also creates problems.

“If it rains too late in the summer, we don’t get drought in the middle, but then there is another problem with planting.”

Chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa Wandile Sihlobo said the winter rain across South Africa was favourable for the 2023-24 season’s winter wheat.

“The heavy rains in June in the province, which damaged infrastructure, had a minimal adverse effect on the overall winter wheat lands. Admittedly, certain areas received excessive moisture that may have stunted crops in some fields.”

Sihlobo said the winter wheat regions had had favourable production conditions so far due to the conducive weather.

“We will likely have a decent harvest, although we forecast an El Nino. The good soil moisture from last year will help,” he said.