Could SA see disasters similar to LA fires? Expert weighs in

As fires ravage through suburbs in Los Angeles (LA), a South African weather expert has warned that more erratic weather could occur in SA.

With recent fires devastating multiple informal settlements in Cape Town, Nico Kroese from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) told The Citizen that most fires in SA are human-induced.

“In SA, through urbanisation and the influx of people to cities and the increase and expansion of informal settlements, shack fires have increased as a result of the proximity of structures constructed of highly flammable material.

“[Which] is the reason these kinds of fire disasters are a regular occurrence in South Africa.”

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Weather conditions to expect in SA

Despite recent rainfall in South Africa, experts anticipate an increase in droughts and heat waves, which could lead to wildfires.

“The impacts of climate change [include an] increase in severe weather in the form of thunderstorms causing flash floods. Coinciding with an increase in thunderstorms is the increase in lightning that ignites fires,” he explained.

Kroese added that fires in LA and elsewhere, including in South Africa, are significantly different in their nature, cause, weather conditions, and origin.

“However, the lessons to be learned are mostly related to the early warning systems and the management of the fires.”

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Is SA prepared for disaster?

According to Kroese, SA’s fire responders are capable of handling small fire outbreaks, though larger disasters pose a “real problem”.

“Recent history has shown that SA can experience fire disasters on the scale of the fires in LA. The Knysna Fires of 2017 is a stark reminder,” he said.

Early warning and fire monitoring systems are the first defence against fire hazards.

Furthermore, a multi-institutional project was initiated in 2024 to develop an improved fire warning system for South Africa.

“The project will involve various stakeholders and role-players including government departments, SAWS, CSIR, and provincial and municipal fire associations,” Kroese concluded.

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