Can opposition’s ‘moonshot pact’ defeat ANC in 2024? Experts weigh in

The “moonshot pact”, a new opposition initiative designed to oust the ANC is a good idea, but unless it attracts more parties, they won’t be able to defeat the ruling ANC in the 2024 general election, according to experts.

Professor Susan Booysen, director of research at Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, said although the initiative appeared to be opportunistic, it has to catch the country’s political imagination.

It is a good initiative because “South Africa is hungry for new initiatives”.

“If it manages to rise to something bigger it can go places, but it’s still touch-and-go at the moment. But it’s an initiative to note,” she said.

Another analyst, Prof Dirk Kotzé, from the political sciences department at Unisa, praised it for its timing, being launched well in advance of the election as there was little time to form a coalition after the polls.

The idea of the new alliance of opposition parties could be easily converted into a coalition after the election, he said.

But the analyst questioned whether the combined parties would be able to beat the ANC.

The analysts were reacting to the announcement made by Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen that six opposition parties had agreed to work together and thrash out a plan of action at a national convention on 16-17 August.

The parties – the DA, Inkatha Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus, ActionSA, United Independent Movement, and the Spectrum National Party – agreed to join forces to oust the ANC.

“This moonshot pact would bring together different parties – excluding the ANC, EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) and their proxies – to ensure that the opposition focuses our collective energies on defeating the ANC, rather than on attacking each other,” Steenhuisen said yesterday.

The six parties combined had 35 % of the national vote, with the DA alone having 21%, he said.

“The DA is deeply committed to this process and we believe this convention will be the most important political conversation to take place in our country since the transition to democracy.

“We believe that the outcome could provide opposition voters with something they have never had before: the credible prospect of victory. By working together, the pact can be greater than the sum of our collective parts,” Steenhuisen said.

Booysen said the fact that the pact was initiated before the election was a good move.

“Many good coalitions the world over let the voters know beforehand who they would partner with after the election so that they knew who they are voting for. That is a good thing in coalition politics, voters must know who and what they are voting for.”

She suggested that the initiative needed to grow bigger to become “something that can configure our politics.”

“It must be big enough to take votes that the ANC has lost, otherwise currently the ANC and the EFF will still be able to form a majority in 2024”.

Only six opposition parties have agreed to participate in the initiative, while several others were still mulling over the idea to join.

But some have boycotted it completely for various reasons.

United Democratic Movement (UDM) leader Bantu Holomisa said while the party was not opposed to the removal of the ANC from power, the UDM was unhappy with the manner in which the DA handled the issue.

Holomisa, who was among the first to call for a national convention over a decade ago, accused the DA of usurping the idea, despite the fact that it was a joint initiative of all opposition parties that were part of a forum they formed around the idea.

Earlier this year, Holomisa said they were surprised to be invited by Steenhuisen to a meeting where he was going the unveil “his moonshot pact” without consulting other parties.