Another hard lockdown is not an option, say experts

South Africans are sitting on the edges of their seats to hear if the country will be placed under more strict lockdown regulations pending the outcome of the “urgent” National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) meeting.

And people on social media have been speculating when President Cyril Ramaphosa will call a “family meeting” and if the country will be further locked down as the second wave hits South Africa.

As of Wednesday, the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in Gauteng stood at 304 420, with 266 912 recoveries and 5 827 deaths.

Data analyst and managing director of civil organisation Dear SA Rob Hutchinson said South Africa would not handle another hard lockdown.

“When we come out of a lockdown, we will again see a spike in the infections,” he said.

The economy would not recover from another hard lockdown.

“Are lockdowns really effective? When people can’t congregate, they naturally gather on a larger scale afterwards,” he said.

Hutchinson said reduced shopping hours due to the curfew resulted in more people going to the limited shops available to get their essentials.

“If shops were open 24/7, it would create better social distancing because you would able be get what you wanted when you wanted.

“The same with a highway in peak hour traffic. Because everyone has to be at work at the same time, we have traffic congestion,” he said.

But he thought there was a likelihood the country would be placed under stricter lockdown regulations.

“When the United Kingdom goes into another lockdown, it is likely we will follow suit. Whatever happens in the UK,
a week later SA usually follows in policy and regulations,” he said.

Hutchinson said the lockdown regulations were never meant to stop the virus but rather help ease the load on the healthcare system already under strain.

“The only way out of the pandemic is by forced vaccinations, but that in itself is something that is anti-constitutional.”

Economist Mike Schussler said South Africa had funds for neither the vaccine, nor Ters funding to impose another hard lockdown.

Schussler said businesses had gone into their reserves and only recently started to breathe after the regulations were relaxed last year.

“I don’t think the coastal towns will be able to recover from another lockdown. One in every 12 people in the Western Cape and one in every nine in the Eastern Cape works in tourism. When they closed the beaches, we knew it would hurt the tourism industry, especially after the alcohol ban,” he said.

Democratic Alliance (DA) Gauteng spokesman for health Jack Bloom said if a further lockdown was imposed it would have multiple negative impacts.

Bloom said besides the economic impact, people suffered from malnutrition and mental health issues, which led to an increased suicide rate.

“There is something like lockdown fatigue,” Bloom said.

He added it must also be remembered that Gauteng was currently fairly early in the surge of the second wave.

“The figures are very worrying,” he said.

Professor Ian Sanne at the infectious diseases departmentat Wits University said the problem was the rapid escalation of hospitalisation across six of the nine provinces.

“Communities do not exercise social distancing and so the government has no choice but to increase the restriction of movement,” Sanne said.

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