AfriForum may have a point – it’s time to end curfews

Lobby groups have cast doubt over whether continued curfews are necessary to save lives, as the fourth wave of Covid-19 is expected to hit South Africa over the festive season.

Industry players and civil society point to recent scientific evidence which raise questions over whether the ongoing curfew and restrictions on movement are justified.

Applying pressure

While civil rights group AfriForum has written to government to put an end to the 11pm to 4am curfew currently in effect across the country, the Beer Association of South Africa (BASA) argues that neither curfew nor alcohol bans will be necessary in the coming months, if government reaches its Covid-19 vaccination drive goals.

Similarly, the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) is also applying pressure to President Cyril Ramaphosa to put an end to the curfew, with a written letter from the lobby group’s lawyers.

The IRR’s contention is that the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) continues to act through the National State of Disaster with no apparent parliamentary oversight.

It further laments a midnight curfew remains in place without any published scientific justification. This despite South Africa recording its lowest Covid-19 death rate numbers on record over the last three weeks since the peak of the first wave.

Science supports alcohol bans more than curfews

Currently available data suggests there is more evidence that alcohol bans save lives compared to the lack of evidence that curfews do the same in the context of Covid-19.

Also Read: AfriForum calls for an end to curfew, gives Dlamini-Zuma until Friday to respond

Analysis from a recently published study by the University of Cape Town provides compelling evidence that the restriction on the sale of alcohol, rather than curfew is associated with the reduction in unnatural deaths observed during the COVID-19 outbreak in SA.

These results are further corroborated by data from a Worcester hospital study showing that full restrictions on the sale of alcohol were substantially more effective than partial brestrictions in reducing trauma admissions.

The same UCT study refutes the argument that curfews rather than bans on the sale of alcohol avert unnatural deaths. All instances of full restriction on the sale of alcohol are associated with a significant decrease in unnatural deaths.

The results are ranging from 42 deaths per day with a curfew of 4 – 7 hours’ duration, to 74 deaths per day under full lock down.

Though the bans and curfews alone are not the only considered factors, these results are consistent with previous research which found that at least 21 unnatural deaths averted per day coincided with the implementation of the mid-July 2020 ban on alcohol sales.

SA can’t afford another booze ban though

BASA CEO Patricia Pillay says in order to protect thousands of livelihoods, it is critical that no further bans or restrictions on trade are enforced over the festive season.

“The last four alcohol bans put 240 000 jobs at risk, with a tax revenue loss of R34.2 billion and R10.2 billion lost in excise revenue in the beer industry alone. It also resulted in 27 craft breweries shutting their doors permanently, with a further 31 breweries still facing the threat of closure, should further bans be enforced.”

Also Read: Ramaphosa ignored advisory committee’s counsel on curfew, gatherings, memo shows

“Currently, there has been no indication from government that there will be the tightening of Covid-19 restrictions over the festive season, including any restrictions on the sale of alcohol,” Pillay points out.

At the same time tourism domestic and international tourism in SA is expected to soar, thanks to currently relaxed travel restrictions and the country being removed from the United Kingdom’s (UK) red-list for bilateral travel. But a continued curfew could hurt the potential gains to the economy anticipated in the coming festive season.

“As an industry, however, we continue to encourage all South Africans to get vaccinated as this is the only way we are going to be able to ensure the safety of all South Africans from a possible 4^th wave. We also continue with education and awareness campaigns at outlets ensuring that all those trading do so responsibly with all Covid safety standards in place.”

BASA has also written to Minister of Health Joe Phaahla to discuss how the beer industry can support the vaccine drive further, and how we can work together to protect citizens during the festive season, while ensuring that we do not sacrifice livelihoods in the process.

– simnikiweh@citizen.co.za