November petrol price hike: Here’s how much you’re likely to pay

With just more than a week left until the adjusted November fuel price kicks in next Wednesday, a hike appears to be imminent – it’s just a matter of how big or how small the increase will be.

It will most likely move towards the bigger end of the scale, with recoveries at the end of the third week of October not showing any improvement.

As has been the trend so far throughout October, the main driver of the under-recovery comes from the global oil price, which is trading much higher relative to September.

‘Fuel-good’ times over for petrol and diesel prices?

October marked the fifth month in a row of decrease in fuel prices, bringing the prices for petrol and diesel to levels last seen before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

However, according to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), it appears the “fuel-good” times will soon be coming to a grinding halt.

November fuel prices: Expected changes in petrol, diesel and paraffin

Here are the petrol and diesel price predictions for November.

• Petrol 93: increase of 18 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of 30 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: increase of 23 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: increase of 22 cents per litre
• Illuminating Paraffin: increase of 20 cents per litre

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Rand/dollar and oil prices

Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop pointed out earlier this month that the two biggest factors influencing the price of fuel in South Africa – the oil price and dollar-to-rand exchange rate – have both swung against price reductions in November.

The surging oil price behind the increase has calmed in recent weeks as fears over an imminent Israeli attack on oil infrastructure in Iran have tapered down.

However, while the spot price of Brent crude has come down to around $73 a barrel since it peaked mid-month at around $80, prices, on average, are still higher than in September.

The rand/dollar exchange rate is still contributing to an over-recovery in prices, but the local unit has weakened to above R17.60 in recent weeks, undermining the strong start to the month where it flirted with a move below R17.00 to the dollar.

The rand has been on the back foot in October largely due to the stronger dollar and general risk aversion in the market as the United States heads towards its presidential election in November.

At the time of writing on Monday, 28 October, the rand was trading at R17,67 against the dollar.

• The official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 6 November.

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