History favours Mercedes at Catalunya

The build-up to last weekend’s Portuguese F1 Grand Prix promised the race of the season. Some of the pundits predicted incredibly close battles throughout the field and results with no Mercedes on the podium. They also forecast Red Bull and Ferrari drivers filling the three steps.

Unfortunately, the predicted fireworks display turned into a damp squib. Sure, there were some good moments during the race, most in the midfield, but up front it was 2020 all over again.

There was a tussle for the front end of the field with Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas holding onto his pole position advantage for a couple of laps. Then Red Bull’s Max Verstappen’s lunge to pass Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes for second spot.

Then both the Dutchman and the Finn were outgunned by the Englishman, who proceeded to disappear up the road and the race became processional.

Generally, it was a display of just how well Mercedes had overcome early season handling problems, something we were informed by team chief Toto Wolff would not be an easy fix for their low rake designed cars.

The W12 definitely had the edge on the undulating, low grip and windswept circuit of Portimao, with Hamilton totally dominant as he increased his championship lead over Verstappen to eight points.

This weekend the F1 world remains on the Iberian Peninsula, moving to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Spanish Grand Prix. This venue is not renowned for exciting racing. F1 GPs there having been won from the front row of the grid on more occasions than I care to remember. A Mercedes front row lock-out would not be good news for those hoping for some exciting racing.

Perhaps the circuit will favour a Red Bull this year, but history is not on the Austrian team’s side. Since the inception of the hybrid era in 2014, Mercedes have won six of the seven Spanish races – five to Hamilton and one to Nico Rosberg. Verstappen is the only other driver to grace the top step in Spain, taking victory in 2016.

It will be interesting to watch the low rake designed Aston Martin’s this weekend. Will they have learned from Mercedes and improved the chassis dynamics of their Aston Martin AMR21?

The upgrades used by Lance Stroll last weekend offered little improvement, the Canadian finishing 14th, one position behind team-mate Sebastian Vettel, who was sans upgrades. I am sure we are all hoping for a close fight this weekend to keep the championship alive and make 2021 an epic year.