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Mid-month data is pointing to another hike in petrol and diesel prices come March. Get the latest predicted fuel price figures here.
Picture: iStock
So it’s Valentine’s Day, and you’ve got an expensive date – at the petrol station. Bad news, though, for car lovers and all motorists is that mid-month predictions point to another hike in fuel prices in March.
If the current trendline of fuel recoveries continues on this trajectory until the end of the month, March would mark the third consecutive increase in petrol and diesel prices for the year.
Motorists hit hard by February petrol price hike
The dismal outlook comes in the wake of February’s increase of 82 cents per litre for both grades of unleaded petrol and between R1.01 and R1.05 per litre for diesel.
As it stands at the moment, motorists are forking out R22.41 per litre to fill up with 95 Unleaded petrol and R22.16 for Unleaded 93.
Under-recoveries for petrol and diesel prices
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows under-recoveries for both petrol and diesel prices at the end of the second week in February.
Petrol is showing an under-recovery of between 13 and 26 cents per litre, while diesel is showing a smaller under-recovery between 0 and 8 cents per litre.
If it’s any consolation, the CEF’s latest snapshot shows a welcome improvement in the numbers indicated at the beginning of the month.
March fuel prices: Predicted changes for petrol and diesel…so far
- Petrol 93: Increase of 26 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Increase of 13 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Increase of 8 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Increase of 0 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: Increase of 20 cents per litre
Crucial factors: Rand/dollar, oil prices
Fuel prices are primarily determined by the price of oil and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
The more positive direction for pricing compared to the start of the month can be largely attributed to the rand/dollar exchange holding steady.
At the time of writing on Friday, 14 February, the rand was trading at R18.36 to the US dollar.
The rand’s largely unchanged position against the American greenback comes as somewhat of a surprise, as South Africa has been on the receiving end of the flurry of executive orders signed by US President Donald Trump this week.
The rand is currently contributing to an 8 to 9 cents per litre over-recovery in the pricing.
Oil prices, meanwhile, are keeping recoveries subdued, accounting for the 9 to 34 cents per litre under-recovery in pricing, depending on fuel type and grade.
According to Trading Economics, Brent crude oil futures held around $75 per barrel on Friday, as traders reacted to Trump’s plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on trade partners and engage in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.
Budget Speech 2025: Will SA be spared a hike in fuel tax?
On Wednesday, 19 February, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will announce the state’s budget as it continues to struggle to balance its finances.
In his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), Godongwana said the country’s main budget deficit increased by R54.7 billion compared to 2023 Budget estimates.
At the time, the minister added that the National Treasury will look to raise R15 billion in additional taxes in 2024 as the country looks for avenues to increase revenue.
General fuel levy puts billions in state coffers
His announcement raised concerns in economic circles that this could result in an increase of fuel taxes.
This is because the South African government receives an estimated revenue of R95 billion from the General Fuel Levy, which is used to fund public services.
The General Fuel Levy currently stands at R3.95, which is 18% of the retail price. The Road Accident Fund’s (RAF) R2.18 roughly translates to 10% of the current price.
ALSO READ: Fuel price explainer: How is the petrol price determined? [VIDEO]
Who has the last say on fuel prices?
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (DMRE) has made a point in the past of reminding consumers that the daily CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes, which could come into play when the fuel price is determined.
- Next month’s official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 5 March.
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