So far, so good: Big petrol price cut building for July

Fingers crossed that early predictions of a significant decrease in the price of petrol will become a reality at the pumps in July.

Fuel recoveries have been in motorists’ favour, with both petrol and diesel showing over-recoveries for the month so far.

Two consecutive months of petrol price cuts might sound almost too good to be true, but if the current over-recoveries hold, Mzansi motorists will be able to go the extra mile during their school holiday travels.

This after a welcome decrease in June fuel prices with prices coming down by R1.24 cents per litre for petrol and between R1.08 (50ppm) and R1.18 (500ppm) per litre for diesel.

July fuel price: Expected changes in petrol and diesel

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that petrol prices are sitting pretty with an over-recovery of between R1.47 and R1.52 per litre, while diesel is gunning for another significant cut of between 92 cents and R1.02 per litre.

The price of both 93 and 95 Unleaded petrol increased on 1 May by 37c/litre, pushing the price of 93ULP to R25.15/litre and 95ULP to R25.49 .

Main fuel price drivers: Rand/dollar, global oil prices

Fuel prices are adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month and are primarily determined by the international price of oil and the rand/dollar exchange rate.

The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting directly to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), looks at pertinent data such as the rand/dollar exchange rate and global oil prices for its snapshots.

Despite the weakening of the rand since the outcome of the 2024 general election, the global oil price, which has pulled under $80 (R1491,) a barrel, has been a main contributor to this over-recovery in fuel prices.

Markets are currently on edge after the African National Congress failed to secure an outright majority at the polls and is currently seeking to form a Government of National Unity.

ALSO READ: ANC’s game-changer: Pursuing a Government of National Unity to break deadlock

Official fuel price: DMRE has the final say

As always, the latest data update comes with the caveat that it is still early in the month, and market conditions can swing before the DMRE makes the final announcement at the end of this month.

According to the department, the unaudited CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.

• The official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 3 July.

Stay tuned to The Citizen for more fuel price updates towards the end of this month.