Double delight: Huge fuel price decrease on the horizon for July

Following early-month predictions of a possible decrease of around R1.50 in petrol prices, Mzansi motorists are no doubt counting the sleeps — and the kilometres — until July.  

Just this month, drivers were already rejoicing at the pumps with a sharp dip of R1.24 cents per litre for petrol and between R1.08 (50ppm) and R1.18 (500ppm) per litre for diesel.

If the current over-recovery in fuel prices hold, July will be the second month in a row for petrol price cuts.

“These decreases, if materialised, will go a long way to further alleviating the fuel price burden — and its associated impact on other prices — felt by millions of South Africans. It’s certainly welcome,” said the Automobile Association (AA).

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July fuel price: Expected changes in petrol and diesel

Here’s what we’re looking at for July, according to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF): Petrol prices are showing an over-recovery of between R1.12 and R1.18 per litre, while diesel is on track for another cut of between 49 cents and 55 cents per litre.

Main fuel price drivers: Rand/dollar, global oil prices

The CEF, a state-owned energy company reporting directly to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), looks at pertinent data such as the rand/dollar exchange rate and global oil prices for its snapshots.

The reasons for the potential cut in fuel prices in July are mainly driven by the global oil price. This as the volatile rand have weakened on the back of political uncertainty following last month’s general election.

So far in June, the price of Brent Crude oil has fallen to $82 per barrel due to reduced demand as economic activity in developed markets is expected to slow.

Anything can happen…

Fingers crossed these projected fuel price cuts will stick around until July…

The latest data update comes with the caveat that market conditions can swing before the DMRE makes the final announcement at the end of this month.

The demand in oil is set to bounce back as the northern hemisphere heads into summer, and motorists start hitting the road. Plus, there’s always the wildcard of conflict in the Middle East, which could mess with supply.

The International Energy Agency is also talking about a major surplus this decade as we move away from fossil fuels. But OPEC+ isn’t too happy about that…and they’ve been known to cut production to keep prices up.

Official fuel price: DMRE has the final say

According to the department, the unaudited CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.

• The official fuel price adjustments will come into effect on Wednesday, 3 July.

Stay tuned to The Citizen for more fuel price updates towards the end of this month.