This month’s official fuel price adjustments for petrol and diesel will come into effect on Wednesday, 5 March 2025. Picture: iStock
Fuel price recoveries are currently pointing to a mixed bag, with petrol prices expected to rise once again in March and diesel now heading for a cut.
The data for the end of the third week in February is overall a significant improvement from the start and middle of the month, when fuel prices showed sizeable under-recoveries for both petrol and diesel.
The March outlook follows February’s increase of 82 cents per litre for both grades of unleaded petrol and between R1.01 and R1.05 per litre for diesel.
As it stands at the moment, motorists are forking out R22.41 per litre to fill up with 95 Unleaded petrol and R22.16 for Unleaded 93.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that while petrol prices are still lined up for a hike next month, the under-recovery has decreased from around 60 cents per litre at the start of February to between 5 and 18 cents, depending on the grade.
The good news for diesel users is that price predictions have shifted from a projected increase at the start of the month to a cut of between 4 and 11 cents per litre.
Fuel prices are primarily determined by the price of oil and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
A relatively stronger rand and flat international oil prices have put the brakes on local fuel recoveries in February.
Oil prices are still the main driver for the under-recovery in petrol prices.
Despite weakening to below $75 a barrel this month, uncertainty over supplies and a weaker US dollar have kept pricing in check.
Fingers crossed that – with one final week to go before month’s end – the current trajectory will persist to swing at least 95 Petrol into over-recovery territory.
ALSO READ: Fuel price explainer: How is the petrol price determined? [VIDEO]
The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (DMRE) has made a point in the past of reminding consumers that the daily CEF snapshots are not predictive and do not cover other potential changes like slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes, which could come into play when the fuel price is determined.
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