New vehicle sales end 2024 on high and low notes

Having started the year off on the back foot, South Africa’s new vehicle sales ended 2024 positively with a third consecutive increase in December.

Fortuner gains as Hilux moves back to #1

Unsettled in November as the national’s best-seller by the Volkswagen Polo Vivo, the Toyota Hilux regained its customary first place in December with sales of 2 924 units versus the 1 946 recorded by the Kariega-built Vivo.

In another reversal from November, the Ford Ranger overtook the Toyota Corolla Cross to place third on 1 924 versus 1 526, with the Suzuki Swift keeping its fifth place with an offset of 1 376.

ALSO READ: Vehicle sales hit new record in November as Polo Vivo tops Hilux

Emerging as the biggest surprise though, the Toyota Fortuner recorded its first top 10 placing since September with sales of 1 343, followed by the Hyundai Grand i10 that kept its seventh place on 1 301.

Keeping station in eighth, the Toyota Starlet edged-out the Isuzu D-Max with sales of 1 259 versus 1 086 – the latter dropping three places from sixth in November to ninth in December.

Completing the top 10, the Great Wall Motors (GWM) Haval Jolion also kept its position from November, but displaced the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro as the country’s best-selling Chinese vehicle.

Month in detail

Describing 2024 as one of the most unpredictable post-pandemic, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa)’s December figures showed an increase of 2.5% from 2023’s 40 262 to 41 273.

Unlike in November, individual segments were largely mixed as passenger vehicles increased 8.2%, while light commercials went the other way by shedding 10.3%.

Reflecting a similar picture, medium-duty commercial vehicles gained 7.6% with heavy-duty busses and trucks losing 11.8%.

2024: a tough year for exports

In posting the figures, Naamsa recorded a year-on-year decline of three percent with a total of 515 712 vehicles sold throughout 2024 compared to 2023’s post-Covid-19 record of 531 775.

Taking the biggest hit, exports for 2024 ended 22.8% lower than 2023 on 308 380 versus 399 594.

December saw locally assembled vehicles bound for international market continuing on the downwards slope with a 4.3% decrease from 27 089 in 2023, to 25 391.

Word from Naamsa

“Since the first half of 2024 was particularly challenging, new vehicle sales in 2024 fell compared to 2023, even though the last quarter of 2024 was promising,” Naamsa said in a statement.

“Consequently, the new vehicle market hasn’t been able to recover to the 2019 pre-pandemic level in four years and is likely to be delayed for another year.

“The industry anticipated a year of two halves with a taxing first half of the year and with brighter economic prospects and an upswing in new vehicle sales during the second half of the year, which unfortunately did not materialise”.

Commenting on the first post-pandemic decline in exports, the association said, “various factors impacted the plummeting in vehicle exports, including a slowdown in demand in the European Union, stricter emission rules, competition from cheaper electric vehicle imports from China in the region, as well as the timing effect of new model introductions in the domestic market by a major exporting OEMs”.

It added, “a significant two out of every three vehicles manufactured in South Africa are exported. As an export-oriented industry, the domestic automotive sector has embraced the trade opportunities via the specific trade arrangements that South Africa has concluded over the past three decades, opening certain markets in Europe, the US and Africa”.

Outlook for 2025 promising

Commenting on 2025, Naamsa said it expects the progress made in the latter half of 2024 to continue, but added that improvements could happen if, for example, more interest cuts are introduced.

“The domestic outlook for 2025 is expected to improve, driven by a revival in business and consumer sentiment stemming from improvements in the country’s key economic indicators,” it said.

“The South African Reserve Bank stated that risks to the country’s growth outlook are assessed to be balanced, but that growth could be higher from 2025 onwards, given ongoing reforms, especially in the network sectors, such as electricity and transport.

“With an improved GDP growth rate of around 1.5% projected for 2025, the new vehicle market would likely improve by single digits compared to the level of 2024”.

It, however, also cautioned about geopolitical uncertainties, most prominently the seesawing US economy ahead of and after the inauguration of Donald Trump on 20 January.

“Any escalating trade tensions are likely to impact US interest rates and drive the dollar higher. However, the expected ongoing easing of monetary policy in the South African automotive industry’s key export markets could see the vehicle export momentum turn positive again over the medium term”.

Top 10 brands: Chinese climb continues

Out of the country’s 10 best-selling brands, December saw a fourth consecutive month of no changes to the top three, with Toyota finishing 2024 on top with 11 422, followed by Volkswagen on 4 832 and Suzuki on 4 514.

In a swap for fourth and fifth though, Hyundai finished ahead of Ford with 2 826 versus 2 607, while Chery placed sixth on 1 867 in front of its arch Chinese rival, GWM, on 1 686.

Taking eighth on 1 496, Kia became the third brand after the People’s Republic pair to jump Isuzu, whose 1 364 vehicle sold, saw it dropped to ninth ahead of a steady-staying Renault on 1 105.

December top 50 best-selling cars

1. Toyota Hilux – 2 924
2. Volkswagen Polo Vivo – 1 946
3. Ford Ranger – 1 924
4. Toyota Corolla Cross – 1 526
5. Suzuki Swift – 1 376
6. Toyota Fortuner – 1 343
7. Hyundai Grand i10 – 1 301
8. Toyota Starlet – 1 259
9. Isuzu D-Max – 1 086
10. GWM Haval Jolion – 1 074
11. Chery Tiggo 4 Pro – 1 059
12. Volkswagen Polo – 879
13. Kia Sonet – 822
14. Toyota Starlet Cross – 759
15. Suzuki Fronx – 704
16. Suzuki Ertiga – 602
17. Toyota Urban Cruiser – 586
18. Mahindra XUV 3X0 – 543
19. Renault Triber – 505
20. Nissan Magnite – 484
21. Suzuki Baleno – 478
22. Toyota Vitz – 473
23. Toyota HiAce – 462
24. Chery Tiggo 7 Pro – 432
25. Omoda C5 – 408
26. Renault Kiger – 403
27. Mahinda Pik Up – 390
28. Hyundai Exter – 388
29. Toyota Rumion – 381
30. Toyota Land Cruiser 70-series – 371
31. Volkswagen T-Cross – 358
32. Hyundai Venue – 340
33. GWM Haval H6 – 329
34. Hyundai i20 – 326
35. Volkswagen Amarok – 315
36. Nissan Navara – 300
37. Ford Everest – 290
38. BMW X3 – 254
39. Suzuki Jimny – 248
40. Kia Pegas – 245
41. Volkswagen Tiguan – 235
42. Suzuki Celerio – 235
43. Chery Tiggo 8 Pro – 225
44. Citroën C3 – 207
45. Toyota Land Cruiser Prado – 201
46. Kia Seltos – 192
47. Renault Kwid – 185
48. Jaecoo J7 – 184
49. Toyota Land Cruiser 300 – 184
50. Volkswagen Polo Sedan – 173

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