April fuel price forecast: Good news for diesel, not so great for petrol…

Motorists can expect a “drop of relief” in petrol prices come April and the Easter holidays, with the latest data showing somewhat of smaller increase than the start of the month’s hefty hike.

Diesel users will – hopefully – see a marginal price cut at the pumps.

According to mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices are currently showing a an increase of about nine to 10 cents a litre, while diesel is slated to come down by 34 and 38 cents for both grades in April.

This is down significantly from the over R1/ litre under-recovery at the start of the month. Illuminated paraffin is expected to drop by about 47 cents a litre.

April fuel price: AA welcomes drop in diesel, paraffin

The Automobile Association (AA) welcomed the projected decrease in diesel and paraffin prices.

“The decrease in diesel and paraffin prices is certainly good news. Diesel is a big input cost in major
sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and retailing, and an increase here often contributes to increased prices of basic commodities.

According to AA, if the rand/dollar exchange rate, as well as the movement in international product prices, continues in its current downward trajectory, there is a likelihood that by the time the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) makes the official adjustment for April, the under-recovery will be significantly less and result in a much-needed price decrease.

April fuel price: Expected changes for petrol, diesel and paraffin

• Petrol 93: Increase of 10 cents per litre;
• Petrol 95: Increase of nine cents per litre;
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Decrease of 34 cents per litre;
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 38 cents per litre; and
• Illuminating paraffin: Decrease of 47 cents per litre.

DMRE has noted that the CEF’s daily snapshots are not predictive and do not encompass other possible modifications, such as slate levy adjustments or retail margin changes.

The department determines these adjustments, considering various factors, at the end of the month.

Crucial factors: Rand/dollar, oil prices

The fuel price are primarily governed by the rand/dollar exchange rate and global oil prices. In South Africa, the fuel price is adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month based on these two factors.

It should be noted that April marks the start of the new financial year for the government, where various tax hikes kick in.

While there is no hike for the general fuel levy and Road Accident Fund levy in 2024, various other minor taxes may impact the final fuel price for April.

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