Time to start praying! ‘Potentially hazardous’ asteroid to pass by Earth on Sunday

An upcoming cosmic event has captured the attention of astronomers and space fanatics alike (present company included) as Asteroid 2023 MG6 is set for an Earth flyby on Sunday.

Historical data from Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) shows that the Asteroid 2023 MG6 is no stranger to planetary flybys, having passed by Jupiter in 1942 and Earth in 1944.

Asteroid alert

Given the space rock’s size, Nasa classified the asteroid as an Amor body, as well as a NEO (near Earth object), and PHA (potentially hazardous asteroid).

According to Nasa, Amor asteroids are near-Earth objects with orbits that lie between Earth and Mars, meaning they pass closer to Earth than Mars does. Scary stuff!

NEOs are asteroids that come relatively close to Earth, while PHAs are those that can come within 7.5 million kilometres of Earth and are larger than 150 metres.

Asteroid 2023 MG6

According to the Nasa’s advanced tracking system, the asteroid is believed to pass at a nominal distance of 0.02433 AU (Astronomical Units, with one AU being the average distance from Earth to the Sun).

An impact from 2023 MG6 is unlikely despite the close approach.

That said, the space rock could cause catastrophic consequences on a continental scale if it were to hit Earth, Nasa said.

Size, speed, distance

2023 MG6 has a diameter of approximately 271 metres, roughly the size of a stadium and will swing by our neck of the space woods at 23:37 South African time.

It will also zip past as if it’s late for work, moving at a relative velocity of 12.38 km/s and a hyperbolic excess speed (v-infinity) of 12.37 km/s.

In other words, the asteroid will be speeding past us at 44 564 kilometres per hour, and at a distance of 3.6 million kilometres.

It might seem far but it’s close in astronomical terms.

What if it hits Earth?

Well… it wouldn’t be a pleasant experience for us.

Based on it’s size, scientists say the devastation of this *small asteroid could release as much as 2 000 megatons of energy upon impact.

This is roughly the equivalent to 133 000 times the energy released by the Hiroshima bomb, as determined during one of Nasa’s hypothetical asteroid strike exercises.

The same test determined that an asteroid measuring around 600 metres in diameter could potentially cause a global catastrophe, with a tenfold increase in impact energy.

^{* And we say small because the asteroid responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs measured roughly 10 kilometres in diameter.}

How asteroids are tracked

2023 MG6 – and all other near-Earth objects – are closely monitored by Nasa’s Defense Coordination Office (PDCO).

The PDCO’s mandate includes identifying and tracking NEOs, and reducing any uncertainty their approach and trajectories may post for Earth.

In order to estimate the asteroid’s speed and distance, the PDCO collects data about an asteroid’s position in the sky and reports it to the Minor Planet Center.

This centre, in turn, determines the most likely orbit of the space rock around our sun, which Nasa’s Sentry II system analyses to assess for unlikely but possible impact scenarios.