‘Slap chips’ may become a luxury after fry-tening black frost potato impact

‘Slap chips’, a South African favourite, may quickly become a luxury and sought-after meal in the coming months after black frost decimated potato crops in Limpopo in July.

In response, the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) urgently needs to implement a temporary import tariff rebate to avert shortages and painful price hikes.

Demand for chips

Hume International Managing Director Fred Hume said import volumes already showed a sudden uptick in demand for frozen French fries in August, reaching over 1,317 tonnes from zero tonnes in July – a record high for the year, and more than four times the previous peak of 312 tonnes seen in January.

“So, although the August 2024 figures are comparable to the 1,357 tonnes imported in August 2023, the numbers are concerning given that several months this year have recorded far lower or zero imports,” Hume said, adding that the potato price trends are also alarming.

The Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group’s Household Affordability Index revealed a sharp spike of 11% in the price of 10kg of potatoes between August and September.

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Impact and price deterioration

As the full impact of the black frost disaster is yet to be felt, Hume said the price may increase even further over the upcoming festive season and the impact on fries could be extreme making it a luxury.  

“Considering that it requires at least 2kgs of potatoes to produce every 1kg of fries, a rise in potato price doubly impacts the price of fries – a burden that suppliers, retailers, and consumers will have to share. And where the market would typically turn to imports to balance out local supply issues, anti-dumping duties have made that increasingly impractical.”

He said anti-dumping duties are intended to protect the local industry and potato farmers from unfair competition.

“However, they have arguably been misapplied in the case of frozen fries and have even become completely counterproductive in the wake of July’s black frost. Domestic potato farmers generally keep local shelves well stocked, but they do not grow enough of the specific variety of potatoes optimal for producing fries.

“As a result, local producers have historically struggled to fully satisfy demand for French fries, especially for food service customers,” Hume said.

Assurance

While Hume said swift and decisive government action is critical to avert the coming catastrophe and ensure that South Africans can enjoy crispy restaurant or oven-baked fries this coming holiday while avoiding unnecessary price shocks, there has been some assurance from the potato industry that anyone in the country who wants potatoes, will get them.

Willie Jacobs, Potatoes SA CEO told eNCA in August that this year’s black frost season was one of the most intense periods they have had. But there was enough stock.

The black frost season is a season of cold and wet weather during winter that can lead to an increase in potato diseases. This season causes damage to potato crops, leading to reduced yields and lower-quality tubers.

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