When it comes to betting on horseracing punters are often faced with a number of dilemmas. For example, anyone looking to dabble in Race 5 at Kenilworth on Wednesday has to decide whether to go with the classier runners or those who have proven they stay the distance, even though they have not raced against the better quality of horses.
Race 5 is a MR 78 Handicap over 2500m and the two horses with the best overall form are Jetano, trained by Joey Ramsden, and Northern Ballet, trained by Justin Snaith. Both have won over 2000m against decent opposition and Jetano ran third in the Winter Oaks over 2200m. But neither has gone further and although both are by Silvano and should stay on breeding, the proof of the pudding, as they say, is in the eating and neither has taken a bite at 2500m as yet.
In addition, they are both fillies taking on the boys but that does not necessarily mean they should written off as they have two top jockeys aboard, Donovan Dillon on Jetano and Bernard Fayd’Herbe on Northern Ballet.
Juddering Angel looks the best of the runners have proven themselves over the course and distance but many of them are basing their performance on two form lines behind the same horse – Big Ed.
Big Ed won two races over 2500m and all of Juddering Angel, Royal Ginger, Soaring Past and Mambo Star finished behind him. But while Big Ed won both the form is confusing as in one of the races Royal Ginger finished second and Juddering Angel fifth while in the next race, with little weight turnaround, Juddering Angel ran second and Royal Ginger fifth.
The later run might be the better guide as it was run in more than two seconds faster and is probably more genuine.
However, the fillies will have my vote with Northern Ballet having the edge over Jetano.