Today I will be riding in Cape Town as I’ve been lucky enough to be linked up with Edict Of Nantes for the season down there.
Obviously all that can change because Anton Marcus is the preferred rider for Mayfair Speculators and at this stage he is committed to Legal Eagle. However, if Edict Of Nantes runs well and Legal Eagle does not, he might be keen to swap rides.
I ride Edict Of Nantes in Race 5 at Kenilworth, a Pinnacle Stakes over 1400m, and he will be using this race to bring him to his peak for the features ahead. There are numerous other horses in the race who appear to be going the same route.
This is a plate race and under the conditions Edict Of Nantes is not that well handicapped so we would be quite happy if he ran into the places. Hopefully Brett Crawford’s charge has improved as he is still a fairly young horse. In some of the upcoming races he will be better handicapped and will have a relatively good chance of winning.
There is also a meeting on the Vaal Classic track today and on this course punters need to be aware that over 1200m the draw is absolutely vital! Just 10m after you jump you start turning so if you are wide and trying to overcome the draw, the horses on the inside are still on the bit and drawing away from you.
It is so biased that in my personal opinion they should limit the number of runners to give horses drawn slightly wide some sort of chance. Maybe the best way to overcome it is to have a staggered start or place the stalls at an angle.
Of the raced runners in Race 1, Gypsy’s Answer, King Of The Delta and badly drawn Brave Gitano look the main contenders. You have to show respect for the unraced Mike de Kock runner Dhabyaan, as almost all of their horses have come out and done exceptionally well. Dhabyaan also is drawn at No 1.
Race 2 is a handicap over 1800m with the main runners being Hidden Agenda and Wild Horizon. Hidden Agenda was disappointing last time but coming back to 1800m is in his favour.
Unagi won well last time but he is more effective on the Inside track and I’m not convinced he will stay 1800m.
Race 3 is the first leg of the Place Accumulator and Red Revolution could be a possible banker as he is a late maturer and should strengthen up with each run he has. Therefore, with normal improvement he could be a safe place bet.
The obvious danger is Kremlin Judgement who will also improve on his first run. If you don’t want to banker Red Revolution De Kock’s charge is the other inclusion.
Race 4 is the first leg of the Pick 6 and Big Parade, a lightly raced colt, has the strongest form and could be a banker in the Pick 6 and PA. He has run on this course before from a bad draw and as this is a weak field he will need to fluff his lines to lose.
Last time he also drawn badly but it is lot more difficult to win from a bad draw over 1500m than 2000m. With the strong finish he produced last time the distance should be in his favour. Therefore I will make him a banker in all bets.
Race 5 is a three-year-old handicap and these horses are young and lightly raced. So you need to include as many as possible. The main runners to consider are Alshibaa and Forafewdollarsmore but as they have only just won their maidens on debut they are hard to assess.
Are they good enough to take on more experienced winners and will they show marked improvement and be quality horses? Only the race will tell. Therefore, include both but also consider Borya as he has run in feature races. I would include all three in the PA and Pick 6.
The same rule applies in Race 6 as this is for three-year-old fillies. I would quite easily consider the field for the Pick 6 because almost every runner has a winning chance. But for the PA my main fancies are Flying Fable, Mohallela and Raven Girl.
Race 7 is a 1450m race and the starting stalls are right on the turn. Even though it’s a small field the draw is a huge advantage. Dan The Lad has a heavy weight but he is in top form. Last time he had the worst of the draws and this time he jumps from pole position. He is the type of horse who needs a little bit of cover and the race should work out perfectly for him. I make him a banker in both the PA and Pick 6.
The danger could be Machismo but he always has a lot to make up and that makes Dan The Lad even harder to beat.
Race 8 is over 1200m and as we have stated previously the race starts right on the bend and therefore better drawn runners have a huge advantage. You could quite easily include the field in the Pick 6 but as this is draw biased I would suggest eliminating some of the poorly drawn horses.
The main one’s to include in the PA are El Bombero, Sky High Flyer and The Shredder.
Race 9 is a Maiden Plate for fillies and none has shown any great form. It could be wise to include as many as possible but the main horses to follow are Ossetra, Coriander Queen, Glencassley and possibly Amazing Trip, who has a bad draw and will need luck for things to go in her favour.
For the PA include the first three and for the Pick 6 add Amazing Trip and Generoso, who is drawn in pole position. If you look past those the field will need to apply.
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