Are rap and hip-hop losing ground in the US?

In just a few decades, “urban music” has gone from underdog status to a dominant position on top of the charts. But this impressive ascendance is now slowing down in the United States, the home of rap and hip-hop. The two music genres accounted for 28% of the US music market in the first nine months of 2022. That’s down from the previous year.

When we look closely at the figures we see that it’s only a 1% drop compared to the same period in 2021, according to the Wall Street Journal, which relies on data from Luminate. However, rap and hip-hop are the only musical genres to experience some decline in the country where they originated.

Rock, pop, country and Latin music seem to be immune to any decline, even if their market shares remain significantly lower than so-called “urban” genres. 

Billboard magazine’s weekly best-selling albums chart confirms this slight decline. Only ten rap albums have topped the chart since the beginning of the year, including Future’s “I Never Liked You,” Drake’s “Certified Lover Boy” and Lil Baby’s “My Turn.”

There were 15 albums that had reached No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart at the same time in 2021, and 17 in 2020. 

There are several factors that may explain this slight loss of interest among Americans for rap and hip-hop. One factor is the rise of Latin music, with artists like Karol G, J. Balvin, Maluma, Rosália and Rauw Alejandro in the forefront. But the undisputed champion of the genre is none other than Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, aka Bad Bunny.

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The Puerto Rican is the most listened-to artist of 2021 on Spotify, ahead of Drake, the Canadian rap superstar. 

A lack of innovation from big names in rap and hip-hop, few new artists on the scene as well as the sudden deaths of promising — and marketable — figures like Juice WRLD, Pop Smoke and XXXTentacion also contribute to this phenomenon, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Adding to this is the changing demographic of consumers on music streaming platforms. Urban music has benefited immensely from the rise of Spotify and co. by becoming more of a mainstream music genre.

“Before, I don’t think people understood the scale of the genre because hip-hop was living in hidden markets on the streets, whether it be during the DVD era or the mixtape era,” Tuma Basa, head of Hip-Hop at YouTube, told magazine HYPEBEAST. 

However, both genres have also seen trends shift with the rise of TikTok, the Chinese social network that has become a music trendsetter. While rap and hip-hop are extremely popular in China, they compete in an increasingly hybrid and trans-regional music ecosystem, where the latest releases compete with decades-old hits like Boney M’s “Rasputin” and Fleetwood Mac’s “Dreams.”

The result is that hip-hop and rap’s share of the US streaming market has been steadily declining since 2019, dropping from 32% to 29% today, according to The Wall Street Journal.

But it’s far too early to announce the genres’ demise. They continue to dominate the American record market, as well as the world market. It’s also worth noting that leading artists in the genres such as Lil Baby and Metro Boomin are set to release new albums this fall, which should provide a boost.

Travis Scott, SZA, Frank Ocean and Rihanna may follow their lead, although nothing has been confirmed yet.

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