The first round of the Primetime Emmy Awards – the craft awards known as the Creative Arts Emmys – are over, and Game of Thrones is in the lead, with 10 awards out of 18 nominations. The HBO fantasy has now won 57 Emmys – more than any other narrative series – and is in line for another 14 this Sunday, when the main awards take place.
We tend to be impatient, so we checked up on the winner predictions at GoldDerby.com, the premier website for predicting Hollywood races. Here’s their take on what the smart money is betting on:
BEST DRAMA: GAME OF THRONES
Game of Thrones is GoldDerby’s 4/1 favourite to win Best Drama, which is no surprise given its record 32 nominations this year or its #8 ranking on IMDb’s list of the Top Rated TV of all time.
Game of Thrones is also a shoo-in for Best Director. The only real question is whether that goes to Miguel Sapochnik for The Long Night (5/1) or creators DB Weiss and David Benioff for The Last Of The Starks (6/1).
Of the cast, Peter Dinklage is the 9/2 favourite to win Best Supporting Actor for his role as Tyrion Lannister.
Game of Thrones may have less luck in other categories though: Killing Eve is the 19/5 favourite to win Best Writing and is also expected to take home Best Actress, either for Sandra Oh (5/1 for her role as Eve) or Jodie Comer (5/2 for her role as Villanelle).
Similarly, Pose’s Billy Porter (19/5 for his role as Pray Tell) or Ozark’s Jason Bateman (4/1 for his role as Marty) are expected to take home the Best Actor award.
Ozark’s Julia Garner is the 39/10 favourite to win Best Supporting Actress for her role as Ruth, but Game of Thrones’ Maisie Williams (Arya) and Lena Headey (Cersei Lannister) are only just behind, with 9/2 odds.
At the Creative Arts Emmys, The Handmaid’s Tale won three awards: Outstanding Production Design and Guest Actor statues for Bradley Whitford as Commander Joseph Lawrence and Cherry Jones as Holly, while Succession won Outstanding Original Main Title Theme Music for Nicolas Britell, but neither series is expected to take home anything else next weekend.
BEST COMEDY: VEEP
All seven seasons of Veep have been nominated for Emmys for Outstanding Comedy Series, and it’s won three times so far. GoldDerby has the final season of HBO’s political comedy as its most popular choice to win, although The Marvelous Mrs Maisel and Fleabag have the same 11/2 odds.
Veep should be feeling more confident about star Julia Louis-Dreyfus winning Best Actress. She’s the 17/5 favourite, despite strong competition from Phoebe Waller-Bridge for Fleabag and last year’s winner Rachel Brosnahan for The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, both at 9/2.
Julia’s won the award for six years in a row, for every season of Veep so far, only missing out last year because the show was on hiatus while she overcame breast cancer.
If she adds another acting statuette to her collection this year, she’ll set a new bar for the most overall Emmy acting wins – 10, including her wins for The New Adventures of Old Christine and Seinfeld.
Veep also has 11/2 odds of taking home the Comedy Writing prize, where it’s currently just behind Fleabag (5/1).
The other big comedy winner this year is expected to be Bill Hader, who’s a shoo-in for both Outstanding Comedy Actor (10/3) and Directing (18/5) for Barry, which about a hitman who joins an LA acting class.
Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson in The Marvelous Mrs Maisel shares 5/1 odds with Olivia Colman as Godmother in Fleabag to win Outstanding Supporting Actress, while Tony Shalhoub (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel) is the 18/5 favourite to win Supporting Actor as Abe, ahead of Barry’s Henry Winkler (last year’s winner as acting coach Gene Cousineau) and The Kominsky Method’s Alan Arkin, who both have 9/2 odds.
The Marvelous Mrs Maisel was the big winner at the Creative Arts Emmys, with six awards. Russian Doll won three, with Barry, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and Fleabag taking two apiece in a hotly contested genre.
BEST LIMITED SERIES: WHEN THEY SEE US
Chernobyl, #4 on IMDb’s Top Rated TV of all-time list, was the second-biggest winner overall at the Creative Arts Emmys, with seven awards. In comparison, When They See Us only won for Casting, but GoldDerby still has Ava DuVernay’s historical drama as their favourite, with 82/25 odds compared to Chernobyl’s 37/10. They predict DuVernay will win Best Director, giving her 17/5 odds compared to Johan Renck’s 4/1 odds for Chernobyl.
GoldDerby also expects When They See Us’ Jharrel Jerome (18/5 as Korey Wise) will edge out Chernobyl’s Jared Harris (39/10 as Valery Legasov) for Outstanding Actor.
Writing is the only category GoldDerby favours Chernobyl for, with Craig Mazin the 7/2 favourite.
Michelle Williams is the 18/5 favourite to win Best Actress for her role as Broadway dancer Gwen Verdon in Fosse/Verdon, although she faces strong competition from Patricia Arquette’s (39/10) Golden Globe-winning physical transformation into Tilly Mitchell in Escape at Dannemora.
Patricia Clarkson (69/20) is expected to win Supporting Actress for her Golden Globe-winning performance as Adora in Sharp Objects, while Ben Whishaw is the 37/10 favourite to take home Supporting Actor for his Golden Globe-winning turn as Norman Scott in A Very English Scandal.
AND THE WINNER IS: SHOWMAX?
If GoldDerby is correct, that means that, in the three main categories, six Showmax titles will win 10 awards, with five prizes split between three Netflix titles and another three between two Prime Video titles.
So keep those odds in mind when renewing your streaming subscription this month…