Will flying for leisure travel change after Covid-19?

Domestic flights for leisure have been allowed since 18 August. The prices have not increased much and there has been an uptake for leisure travel by air, but it is only a fraction of what it was before the lockdown.

FlySafair, Airlink and Cemair have been in operation, as well as Mango, although it has had some problems over the past week. Kirby Gordon, CMO of FlySafair, says prices have remained the same, although pricing is a fairly complicated question.

“The average fare paid this month is about 6% up on what it was last year, which is effectively inflation.”

He explains flight prices are determined by the market forces of supply and demand. “There are times when there are plenty of flights but the demand is low when flights will be cheap. At other times, demand may be high and supply limited when prices will rise quickly. Our top and bottom price points have not changed before and after lockdown.”

According to Gordon, FlySafair definitely saw an increase in demand.

“The long weekend in September  was particularly busy and we surmise that these were largely leisure travellers. However, these are still only a fraction of the number of air travellers that we saw this time last year. I would estimate that the numbers this month were probably at most about 30% of the September 2019 numbers.”

Chris Zweigenthal, chief executive of the Airlines Association of Southern Africa, also says passenger numbers have increased on a month to month basis.

“We expect the September 2020 numbers to have increased even further from August 2020, which were at 15% of August 2019 levels. These numbers are expected to climb further from October.”

While he believes that there is no reason why people will not be able to afford flying to their holiday destinations, Gordon says although flights are not more expensive, the reality is that our economy has been very hard hit by the pandemic.

“Of course this means that plenty of folks have had to close their businesses, are out of work or may be on reduced salaries. Despite lower interest rates, it is realistic to expect that South Africans will have less disposable income than they did before. It is going to be a tough recovery,” Gordon says.

He thinks it will still be good value to fly with a family, but it is a decision that people must take individually in terms of how you define value.

“If you book in advance and are flexible with your travel dates, you can fly away for a bargain. The value in not spending hours in a car with fighting kids and risking road accidents at high traffic periods might well offset the increase in price.”

About the change in how we travel, Zweigenthal  says current processes are in the interests of health and safety and will be with us for some time.

Gordon says realistically it is likely that things will always be different going forward.

“Just how things are likely to change is still really to be seen. The natural seasonality of the year has really been thrown out by all that’s gone on and people are adjusting their behaviours in some regards. I suspect that this December will be quite telling in this regard, but we will have to wait and see.”

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