Trump tariffs’ seesaw impact on Southern Africa

While it was considered a good thing if a country exported a lot of products to the US, the picture has changed with President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that punished countries for exporting much more to the US than they are importing.

This seesaw effect is also clear in Southern Africa.

Although Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs last week, giving countries to a little more time to figure things out, countries will still face a 10% tariff, which is far less harmful to some of the region’s hardest hit producers, Lesotho, Mauritius, Botswana and South Africa with initial tariffs of between 30% and 50%, Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says.

He points out that Southern Africa’s salient mineral producers on the other hand will benefit from exemptions on certain commodities, while the countries with more manufacturing-oriented exports are the most vulnerable.

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For Zambia, the direct impact of US tariffs is limited to specific sectors due to a low share of its exports shipped going to the US, while copper falls under the list of goods exempt from US tariffs.

“Although the direct impact of US tariffs on the overall balance of payments is low, the Zambian government signalled acknowledgement of sector-specific implications by offering to reduce or scrap tariffs on US imports.”

Eswatini and Zimbabwe relatively insulated from Trump tariffs

Van der Linde says Eswatini and Zimbabwe are relatively insulated from US tariffs, with less than 2% of their total exports going to the US.

“For Eswatini, the impact of the US tariffs on neighbouring South Africa, the destination of most of Eswatini’s exports and the primary source of Southern African Customs Union revenues, is concerning.

“Zimbabwe may surprisingly benefit from increased global uncertainty through its exports of gold, the country’s primary export product. Gold’s role as a safe-haven asset has resulted in it hitting a fresh record high.

“Most of South Africa’s exports to the US are metals (including precious gold) that are exempt from tariffs, but the country’s industrial and agricultural exporters are most at risk. South Africa’s existing supply-side constraints will exacerbate the impact of US tariffs on domestic exporters.”

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However, for Botswana, Trump’s tariff moves add another layer of strain on global diamond demand and prices, Van der Linde says. “The US still ranks among the top 10 destinations for Botswana’s exports and is a major source of global diamond demand.

“We think global diamond demand and prices will take further strain and could potentially further stimulate demand for lab-grown diamonds. As a result, we now predict Botswana’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to register 1.3% this year, down from our previous forecast of 1.6%.”

How Southern Africa’s large mineral exporters will benefit

Most of the region’s large mineral exporters will benefit from tariff exemptions.

Van der Linde says Lesotho stands out as the most vulnerable country on the continent to Trump tariff hikes. “In 2022, nearly 25% of the mountain kingdom’s total exports were textile exports to the US.

“Textiles are Lesotho’s primary export product and the largest private employer. Lesotho’s manufacturing industry is almost entirely focused on textiles, accounting for roughly 90% of manufacturing employment and exports. Consequently, we have lowered Lesotho’s GDP growth rate by 0.5% in 2026 in our preliminary forecast.”

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Mauritius could also suffer

He says Mauritius is also immensely susceptible to global supply chain disruptions given its reliance on imports to meet domestic demand. In 2024, merchandise exports to the US accounted for just over 10% of Mauritius’s total exports, with dominant commodities shipped to the US including live animals and articles of clothing.

“The Mauritian textile manufacturing industry has long struggled to maintain a solid performance despite its preferences under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), with tariff woes and the likely scrapping of Agoa fuelling downside risks.

“However, Mauritius is inherently a services-based economy, which could offer some shelter from global economic headwinds. We have, for now, maintained our real GDP growth estimate of 3.9% in 2025 for Mauritius.”

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Southern African countries not expected to retaliate

Van der Linde says concerns over losing access to the lucrative US market mean that Southern African countries are unlikely to retaliate and would rather opt for a more cooperative approach.

“Aside from the few countries heavily exposed to US trade, the direct impact of tariffs should be fairly limited but the same cannot be said for the price channel amid escalating US-Sino trade tensions.

“Lower levels of global trade and a weaker Chinese economy could affect commodity prices and demand negatively, possibly weakening the export outlook due to second-round effects. However, this should be partially offset by weaker international oil prices.”

He says on the bright side changes in global trade dynamics might lead to new opportunities for intra-African and African-US trade, especially if Africa could supply minerals that China previously exported to the US, although the economic impact will not be uniform across the broad Southern African region.