Steenhuisen to ask Ramaphosa if SA expects 45,000 to die from Covid-19 over three years

DA interim leader John Steenhuisen said on Thursday afternoon that he planned to put the questions listed below to President Cyril Ramaphosa directly in a meeting at 4.30pm, ahead of the president’s address to the nation on how the country will be allowed to return to a semblance of normality after the lockdown starts being lifted.

“Furthermore, we have today sent the president updates to our Covid-19 response working paper, as our contribution to the national decision-making process,” he added.

Steenhuisen has questioned whether government indeed expects a death toll of 45,000 people in South Africa due to Covid-19 over the next two to three years, according to one report.

He added that if this was the case, whether ongoing hard lockdowns could be justified.

He further pointed out that government’s own chief scientific adviser, Prof Salim Abdool Karim, had reportedly said he wasn’t sure how much more a further extension of the lockdown could achieve for the country.

You can read Steenhuisen’s submission in full below:

1. We request clarity on the alleged statement by Prof Shabir Mahdi (of Wits University, who heads the public health subcommittee advising the President and his cabinet) revising down the expected number of SA Covid deaths to 45,000 over the next 2-3 years, from an earlier estimate of between 120,000 and 150,000 fatalities. This was reported in a TimesLive article on 21 April. We need to understand if this estimate of 45,000 deaths over 2-3 years factors in a series of lockdowns, or is the estimate before interventions. If the latter, then this revision profoundly impacts SA’s optimal response to this pandemic. A death rate of 45,000 over 2-3 years is broadly in line with SA’s current murder rate and Easter road death rate, neither of which have elicited hard lockdowns in response. Therefore, we request clarity around these alleged comments.

2. We request clarity around Prof Salim Abdool Karim’s comments reported by Rapport on Sunday, in an interview with Hanlie Retief, in which he said: “I think we’ve already reaped the benefits of the lockdown. I’m not sure how much more the lockdown can help us.” If this is the view of the government’s leading expert on the coronavirus epidemic, it is important that South Africans know how this view is guiding government’s decisions on the future implementation of a lockdown strategy.

3. We request the immediate implementation of a policy of mandatory cloth masks for all, in all public places. At least 3 free cloth masks should be provided free of charge to all those who are unable to afford masks. Assuming 40 million people require free masks, this would be 120 million masks in all, and would cost an estimated R600 million – a mere fraction of the cost to SA of a single day of hard lockdown. This is particularly important for high-density situations like on public transport and in shops, but should be mandatory in all places where people are not able to keep a 1.5 m distance.

4. We suggest that a suppress-release approach on alcohol availability should be used to relieve pressure on hospitals. This could be generalised or localised depending on circumstances.

5. We suggest that all sectors should have, and publish online, a set of social-distancing protocols in place specific to their context, before reopening. Furthermore, all businesses should be required to complete a workplace risk assessment and mitigation form. This form must be available on the business premises and website. This will inform the public, policy makers, suppliers and customers of the risks inherent to that business and the mitigation measures which the business has put in place to deal with those risks.

6. As the economy opens up, public transport will be a central nexus of human interaction. Three criteria are crucial:

• Everyone on public transport to be masked.
• Everyone on public transport to sanitise their hands on entrance and exit.
• Public transport vehicles to be sanitised regularly.

7. We call for the immediate lifting of all activities listed in our attached document.

8. We request transparent, reliable and up-to-date reporting of key Covid-19 response data. In particular, we request national, provincial and area-specific data around cases, testing, hospital load/capacity and implementation of economic stimulus measures. We believe this to be an entirely reasonable request, given the massive sacrifice South Africans are making to slow the spread and minimise the impact of this disease. Only with this information can we know how best to respond.

Assuming that the expected fatality rate for Covid remains far above other reasons for mortality in South Africa, then a Smart Lockdown strategy (locking down only when, where and to the extent necessary, coupled with more targeted interventions – particularly a massive, rapid-response testing programme and free mandatory masks for all in public) is preferable to a series of hard lockdowns over the coming years. Indeed the President has already suggested that SA will be taking the smart lockdown route. A smart lockdown is simply not possible without accurate, up-to-date, localised, transparent data.

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