Some respite, but agriculture sector still needs more rain

Although the rain has brought some relief to the country’s agricultural sector, expert Wandile Sihlobo says it is critically important the long-term weather prospects include more rain.

This comes after various parts of the country experienced rather erratic weather patterns, not only putting a damper on the festive season, but also having a negative impact on the agricultural sector.

In fact Sihlobo, agricultural economist and head of agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) in South Africa labelled 2019 one of the toughest years the agricultural sector has experienced in the past decade.

Sihlobo said that along with the “sustained despondency” the sector had experienced among farming businesses, Agbiz had noticed that there was also a decline in business confidence among agribusinesses.

He said together with the “erratic” conditions and biosecurity challenges – specifically foot-and-mouth disease – the agricultural sector was likely to start the new decade off “on a negative footing”.

“The drought that started in October 2018 and continued into early 2019 in some parts led to a poor summer crop and horticulture harvest. The major summer crops performed poorly during the 2018- 2019 production season – maize, soya beans and sunflower seed production are all down year-on-year, by 10%, 24% and 21%, to 11.3-million tons, 1.2-million tons and 680,940 tons respectively. Moreover, the wine grape harvest was down 2% from 2018,” he said.

“All of this led to lower export volumes and weighed on farmers’ income, which influenced their ability to acquire new machinery.

“In terms of biosecurity, the primary challenge in 2019 has been foot-and-mouth disease, which remains a threat after the recent outbreak in Limpopo.

“This also affected livestock farmers’ income and the general performance of the agricultural economy. I should note that the export ban on wool has since been lifted and SA’s export figures could firm in 2020. For the beef industry, however, the new outbreak has reintroduced the uncertainty that constrained economic activity in the first three quarters of this year.”

Sihlobo welcomed the recent rain and said it brought much-needed moisture to assist with the planting season. What was “critically important” was the long-term weather prospects.

He added that a favourable prospect would be that there was a sufficient amount of rain to aid farmers in the pollination season.

“The current forecast says that at the end of January and February, central and eastern parts of the country could be dry. We will be monitoring it,” said Sihlobo.

– jenniffero@citizen.co.za

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