Rhodes Food: ‘shares are ripe for a buy’

Rhodes outperformed most of its peers in the food production industry. Its management attributed the strong performance to the strength of its brands, a well-established international customer base and exposure to higher-income groups. The rand’s weakness against Rhodes’ trading basket of currencies also bolstered revenue. Attributable earnings for the interim period to end-March grew 56%, benefiting from lower finance costs flowing through from the lower debt levels, which were slashed after listing in October last year. Net finance costs fell to around 14% of operating income from 45% in the previous year. The operating margin declined to 8% largely because of the R22m listing costs, which were included as part of operating costs.

Revenue growth of 12% was driven by volume growth and price inflation. The rand’s weakness contributed 120 basis points to the growth. Headline earnings climbed 22%. On a normalised basis (excluding listing costs and based on the higher number of shares after listing), headline earnings grew 116% to 36.6c/share (2014: 21.8c)

Having slashed its liabilities just after listing, Rhodes is in a much better position to pursue acquisition opportunities to complement its organic growth strategy. It has a presence in a few African countries, mostly in southern Africa, which leaves scope for growth into potential markets further north.

Management has so far lived up to its listing commitment of accelerating the company’s growth strategy and taking advantage of acquisition opportunities. The four acquisitions provide lateral product extensions and neat entries into the new categories of baby foods, pickles and long-life bottled salads.

Synergistic benefits will flow once the acquired businesses are integrated. Rhodes has an opportunity to cut costs through the centralisation of marketing, production, administration and supply functions of its targets where possible. We think such savings alone could see the company reaching its medium-term goal of an operating margin of 10% (currently around 9%).

The company will also continue benefiting from existing long-term supply partnerships with global and local premium retailers. These provide some assurance over distribution channels. In the past year Rhodes expanded its existing agreement to supply Woolworths with frozen ready meals and dairy products to include pies, pastries and some organic products.

Despite what we see as largely bright prospects, SA’s constrained consumer appears to be the most visible risk to the group’s growth story. This is, however, partly mitigated by Rhodes’ exposure to higher-income customers who are more resistant to the stressed economic environment.

It also has a well-established international customer base from which it generates more than a third of its earnings. While the company hedges some of its foreign currency exposure it will more likely benefit from the weakening of the rand.

Considering that the company could easily more than double its earnings within the next two or three years, Rhodes shares seem like a compelling buy. This view is supported by Intellidex’s discounted cash-flow model which shows 20% upside potential in its shares over the next year. We therefore change our previous recommendation from hold to buy.