Repo rate stays the same – again

The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged again at 8.25%.

This was mainly due to considerable uncertainty about the longer-run inflation outlook and uncertainty that is unusually elevated at the moment.

Lesetja Kganyago, governor of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb), made the announcement in Pretoria on Thursday.

“We now see inflation stabilising at our 4.5% objective in the second quarter of next year. This is an improvement on our March forecast, which only reached this milestone at the end of 2025.

“However, the changes to the outlook are not large when compared to our March forecast. Average inflation for 2025 is only a tenth of a percentage point lower. The task of achieving our inflation objective is not yet done,” he said.

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Uncertain start to 2024

According to Kganyago, we had an uncertain start to 2024 but recent developments have been more positive.

However, he pointed out that inflation outcomes were worse than expected early in the year, leading to a repricing of rate expectations.

“There is still considerable uncertainty about the longer-run inflation outlook globally. That said, inflation outcomes in the US have been more benign recently and markets still see some room for adjustments by the US Federal Reserve this year. We may also see easing by other major central banks.”

Meanwhile, he said, oil prices are back to where they were at the start of the year, close to $80 per barrel, after briefly exceeding $90.

“Although geopolitical tensions are far from resolved, some more adverse economic scenarios, such as oil prices above $100 per barrel, appear less probable now. Our forecast suggests oil prices will remain near their current levels.”

Kganyago also referred to the exchange rate being particularly volatile since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

“It briefly appreciated to a 10-month high against the dollar last week. The starting point for our forecast is R18.57.

“Markets remain focused on the direction of domestic policy, a theme that has dominated many investor conversations over the past few months. Conditions remain uncertain, but we expect greater clarity in due course.”

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Change in Sarb’s inflation forecast

He said the change in the Sarb’s inflation forecast mostly reflects recent data outcomes, with the CPI releases for March and April turning out slightly better than expected. Therefore the bank revised down its 2024 food and core forecasts marginally.

However, the Sarb now expect fuel price inflation to be higher in the near term but improve for 2025. Kganyago said this helps its forecast to get to the target midpoint sooner.

“Nonetheless, the MPC remains concerned that inflation expectations are elevated. After three years of inflation being above 4.5%, few survey respondents, especially from businesses and trade unions, now believe that inflation will be at 4.5% in two years.”

Although the MPC assesses the inflation forecast risks to be broadly balanced at present, high inflation expectations require that we deliver on our target sooner rather than later, to re-anchor expectations, he explained.

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Growth outlook for second quarter expected to be better

“Turning to the growth outlook, economic activity indicators for the first quarter have been coming in worse than expected, despite reduced electricity load shedding. However, these higher-frequency data can be volatile.

“We expect slightly weaker first-quarter growth but this will be offset by better second-quarter growth. We still forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.2% this year. The growth numbers for the outer years also remain unchanged.”

Therefore, the Sarb assesses the risks to the growth outlook as balanced, Kganyago said.

“The recent improvement in the power supply, with no load shedding since 26 March, is a welcome development. We have revised our load shedding assumption down, but additional revisions may be required if this performance is sustained.

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Modest acceleration in growth expected over next few years

“Overall, our forecasts show a modest acceleration in growth, over the next few years, alongside a gradual stabilisation of inflation at our target. The forecast continues to see policy normalisation, with rates easing into more neutral territory by next year. As before, the rate path from the Quarterly Projection Model remains a broad policy guide, changing from meeting to meeting.”

Kganyago said decisions of the MPC will continue to be data-dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook.

“We are committed to stabilising inflation at the mid-point of the target band. Achieving this outcome will improve the economic outlook and reduce borrowing costs.”

He said the Sarb reiterates the views of the MPC on additional measures that would improve economic conditions.

“These include reaching a prudent public debt level, improving the functioning of network industries, lowering administered price inflation and keeping real wage growth in line with productivity gains.”