Covid-19 Insights Report: No job recovery in SA ‘scary’, says economist

No job recovery in South Africa is “scary”, according to an economist commenting on the latest Covid-19 Insights Report, which shows that the pandemic did not only affect jobs last year, but mostly this year.

The fact that 12% of respondents were unemployed last year and 17% this year is a big worry.

“Although a small sample was used, it tells us how jobs were destroyed and then not created again. In the US the unemployment number peaked in the middle of 2020 at 14.8% and now it has dropped to just 4.2% thanks to job recovery.

“Many countries have followed that trend of destruction of jobs and then job recovery, but South Africa has not seen any job recovery yet. This scares me and this data suggests that the fourth quarter employment data will probably be as bad as the third,” says economist Mike Schűssler.

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This is what SA’s think, feel and worry about

According to the latest Consulta Covid-19 Insights Report, this is what South Africans think, feel and worry about at the end of 2021: government did not do a good job with handling the pandemic and banning cigarettes and alcohol did not stop the spread of the virus.

However, a large majority believes agrees that banning large social gatherings and travel between provinces, wearing masks and curfews were in fact effective in preventing the virus from spreading according to Consulta’s latest Covid-19 Insights Report.

Schűssler says it is worrying that the respondents believe the virus could be stopped by travel when the world shut down but the virus still travelled. “That is very disappointing to me, as we now want foreigners to come back. Even if they are just talking about local travel, it still makes no sense.

“Big gatherings, yes, but travel restrictions hurt hotels, Űber, car rentals, airlines, airport shops, tour guides, guest houses, ships, food and event companies and kept family members apart.”

Consulta released its first Covid-19 Insights report in April 2020 and conducted another survey among 1 000 people between 24 July 2021 and 15 August 2021 to find out how South Africans are coping in their work and home lives, what their views are on government’s handling of the Covid-19 lockdown and if their employment and financial conditions have changed.

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Government’s handling of the pandemic

• 52.3% feel that government does not have enough measures in place to manage the spread of the virus and 47.7% feel that government has sufficient measures in place, compared to 48% in 2020.
• The vast majority disagreed that the prohibition of visiting public places such as restaurants and parks as well as the ban on cigarettes and alcohol helped to stop the spread of the virus.
• However, most respondents agreed the banning of large social gatherings (87%), mandatory wearing of masks (92%), night-time curfews (78%) and prohibiting movement between provinces (64%) were effective to prevent the spread of the virus.
• 58% indicated that they had been fully vaccinated, with 81% of those vaccinated receiving the Pfizer vaccine and 16% the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, while 3% were unsure about which vaccine they received.
• 25% indicated they had not been vaccinated but planned to do it, while 17% indicated they do not plan on being vaccinated.

Schűssler says it is interesting that the country is split near 50% to 48% on the disaster lockdown and regulation brought in by the government according to the survey.

“However, this is mainly researchers of whom many (43% at one stage) got to work from home and that may create a bit of a lockdown bias in my view. It is good to see most of the respondents believe that stopping alcohol and cigarette sales and closing restaurants were silly, as this is where taxes and jobs were primarily lost.”

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This was the pandemic’s impact on work with no job recovery

• The number who lost their jobs due to the pandemic increased by 5% to 17% in 2021 compared to 12% in April 2020.
• The number of people working from home in 2021 is 33%, declining by 10% from 43% in April 2020. It is clear that the pandemic has reshaped the world of work and that remote working and hybrid work models will be a permanent feature for many people, with a marked implication for commercial property owners.
• The number of people who found the pandemic had a negative impact on their income increased to 52,9% from 50,7% in April 2020.

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This is what respondents require from their employers

• 73,4% feel in 2021 that their employers have done a good job of implementing the necessary safety measures to protect them from contracting the virus in the workplace, a slight improvement from 70,6% in 2020.
• 22% indicated they needed their employers to provide the necessary tools to do their jobs properly, while 23% felt employers need to do more to show that they care about their employees during this time.
• 5% were concerned about their job security, down from 12% in 2020.
• 38% mention the need for employers to stay connected to co-workers and managers to provide the necessary direction during this time, a significant increase from 11% in 2020, suggesting that there has been a considerable increase in feelings of isolation and a disconnect between employees and managers.
• 5% say they want to feel trusted to do their job without someone looking over their shoulders, slightly down from 6% in 2020.
• 7% require more ‘human’ engagement by showing support in non-financial ways, down from 12% in 2020.

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Financial relief during Covid-19

• 64% felt that Absa is doing enough to provide financial relief, 57% felt so about FNB, 61% about Nedbank and 60% about Standard Bank.
• Complaints about banks not doing enough centred around payment holidays and issues around the repayments, bank charges, a lack of communication during this time and a lack of support in general.

“The overall sentiment continues to be one of tackling the changes, adjusting to the new conditions as a new normal and ‘just getting on with it’.

“There is also a marked decrease in interest in news sources about the pandemic from when the pandemic first arrived in SA, suggesting that people no longer care for the information or news in many ways,” says Marko Fourie, product lead for SA-csi at Consulta.

He warns that we need to guard against complacency setting in.

“It seems that the pandemic has been overtaken by other pressing factors amplified by the economic and social fallout of the pandemic.”

This includes growing disparities in the country’s socioeconomics, the disproportionate negative impact on vulnerable communities, local government elections and political upheaval and an overwhelming sense of pandemic fatigue.