Long overdue Integrated Resource Plan 2023 quietly published

The long overdue Integrated Resource Plan 2023 was quietly published in the Government Gazette for comment on Thursday but South Africans should not hold their breath and expect anything new. What it does promise is more load shedding at least until 2030.

The private sector and business organisations have been urging Gwede Mantashe, minister of energy, for months to publish the plan as all planning until now was done according to the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

The main purpose of the IRP is to ensure security of the necessary electricity supply by balancing supply with demand, while considering the environment and total cost of supply.

According to the IRP, several key assumptions changed since the promulgation of IRP 2019, including the electricity demand projection, Eskom’s existing plant performance and new technology costs. These changes made the review of IRP 2023 necessary.

However, energy expert Roger Lilley says the IRP 2023 is just more of the same and offers no innovation or out-of-the-box thinking, although the minister acknowledges the damage done by load shedding.

The IRP 2023 warns in its conclusion that an analysis of the period until 2030 “highlights a concerning electricity supply and demand deficit”.

About Eskom’s plant performance, the IRP points out that during 2023 Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) “plummeted” to 54.72% and “the downward spiral of the EAF continues to pose a serious threat to security of supply. This has resulted in high levels of load shedding for prolonged periods of time, leaving the economy exposed to stagnation vulnerabilities”.

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IRP 2023 backtracks on plans in IRP 2019

Lilley says it is also interesting that IRP 2023 now goes back on the promises of IRP 2019 and wants to delay the closure of coal fired power stations, while it also wants a further extension for minimum admissions. “This IRP is terrible and should never have happened, but they are trying to do the best they can.”

Air quality regulations made in terms of the National Environmental Management Act: Air Quality, provide that coal power plants must meet the minimum emission standard by a certain time, otherwise they will be non-compliant and cannot legally operate.

However, the IRP 2023 says if this is implemented, it will result in the loss of baseload generation capacity in the short to medium term of about 16 000 MW immediately and up to 30 000 MW after March 2025, when the current postponements lapse.

The IRP says a balance will have to be found between energy security, the adverse health effects of poor air quality and the economic cost of these plants shutting down.

The IRP suggests two scenarios: one for the short term and another for the long term. Horizon One is for 2023 to 2030 and the focus is on stabilising the country’s electricity supply to end load shedding. Horizon Two covers 2031 to 2050 and aims to ensure that South Africa has enough generating capacity to meet demand for the coming decades and guide long-term policy.

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Horizon One: 2023 to 2030

The interventions suggested for Horizon One include:

• The improvement of the Eskom fleet’s EAF
• The deployment of dispatchable generation options such as gas to power
• Delaying where possible shutting down coal fired power plants
• Support and enable the development of the transmission grid
• Manage the emerging risks of completing the extension of the design life of Koeberg and
• compliance with minimum emission standards.

The IRP 2023 states that the analysis of Horizon One leads to a plan that includes expected capacity from the last two remaining units of Kusile, government programmes that currently procure up to BW 6, committed and priority projects by the business community and forecasted business and residential roll-out of rooftop solar PV.

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Horizon Two: 2031 to 2050

Horizon Two contains five pathways:

• Pathway One is a reference case based on simulation output based on the cheapest energy mix, costing R5.9 trillion
• Pathways Two and Three is the transitioning of the power system that will add the most new generation capacity but is the most expensive option as it will cost R8.4 trillion
• Pathway Four is based on the delayed shutdown of coal fired power plants by ten years. It has the lowest new build requirements and “adequately maintains security of supply” according to the IRP 2023 and will cost R6.5 trillion
• Pathway Five is the deployment of cleaner coal technologies up to 6 000 MW and will cost R6.1 trillion.

The Integrated Resource Plan states that in the case of Horizon Two, it is evident from the observations and analysis that the pathway that will ensure security of supply, reduce carbon emissions and ensure the least cost to the economy will be a combination of technical analysis and policy adjustment that considers practical implementation considerations.