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By Hilton Tarrant

Moneyweb: Columnist


Just how bad are things in SA mining?

Average remuneration has nearly tripled, but jobs are evaporating…


Since the recent peak in 2012, the South African mining industry has been shedding – on average – at least 1 200 jobs per month, every month. Using annual figures from the Chamber of Mines’ Facts and Figures 2016 statistics publication released this month, it seems as if the trend has accelerated. In 2015, 16 700 jobs were lost in the sector (from ±14 500 in both prior years), while in 2016 that number spiked to 21 500.

However, there was improvement during 2016 on the back of better commodity prices. The Chamber says that “whereas 40 000 jobs were lost from the beginning of 2015 (more than 1 500 per month) this slowed at the end of 2016 to around 400 per month”.

Mining industry direct employment
2007495 150
2008518 729
2009491 794
2010498 906
2011512 878
2012524 632
2013510 099
2014495 568
2015478 868
2016457 332

* Source: Chamber of Mines

In total, however, 67 300 jobs have been lost in the sector since 2012. When measured by commodity, these declines have largely been across the board.

 GoldPGMsIron OreCopperChromeManganeseDiamondsCoal
2007166 064186 41013 8574 2419 7963 23919 47160 439
2008166 423199 94813 2573 52312 2793 97618 47465 484
2009159 926184 16213 7283 36610 9665 00311 60170 791
2010157 019181 96918 2163 03213 9825 87911 46774 025
2011144 799194 74522 3603 23716 9117 46012 04778 580
2012142 200197 75223 3802 53319 7628 68512 33283 244
2013131 738191 26021 1272 93018 3589 84213 57988 039
2014119 007186 86421 7942 85318 6589 97115 35686 106
2015115 055187 75620 7602 80518 4708 65717 48177 773
2016116 479172 44416 4902 36615 5147 24017 97877 506

Employment in the gold and PGMs sectors make up nearly two thirds of total mining employment. The problem, of course, is that South African gold mining is in long-term structural decline. Barring the 1 500-odd jobs added between 2015 and last year, the numbers have been in freefall, along with production. A decade ago, with 166 064 employees, South Africa produced 10.1% (252.6 tons) of total global output. In 2016, that had dropped by 44% to just 4.4% (142.1 tons) of world gold production, which continues to decrease.

But, total employee earnings in the sector roughly doubled from R14.7 billion in 2007 to R28.5 billion in 2016. This means that the average annual remuneration per mineworker in the gold sector has nearly tripled over the decade from R87 354 to R246 665. Put another way, average pay has gone from R7 280 per month to R20 555. Mike Schüssler argued this point on Moneyweb in August last year: Some minimum salaries are higher than you think.

There have been similar increases in the PGMs sector. The average annual remuneration per mineworker has gone from R98 391 in 2007 to R266 036 last year. Average monthly pay is R22 170 (from R8 199). The Chamber says that employee earnings in this sector increased by an average of 16.4% per year between 2005 and 2016.

Across mining as a whole, the average annual remuneration per mineworker increased from R101 043 in 2007 to R262 553 in 2016.

Of course, these are averages, not the median. Using data from StatsSA, the Chamber notes that “between 2010 and 2015, employees in the mining and utilities industries were the top performing earners, with the largest nominal increases in earnings also recorded for these two sectors (R2 500 and R1 500 respectively)”.

 

Median monthly earnings of employees, by industry
 20102015
AgricultureR1 295R2 231
MiningR5 000R7 500
ManufacturingR3 250R3 800
UtilitiesR6 000R7 500
ConstructionR2 437R3 000
TradeR2 505R3 100
TransportR3 500R4 000
FinanceR3 501R4 000
ServicesR6 000R5 000
Private householdsR1 000R1 500
TotalR2 900R3 100

The mining industry is very well paid, in comparison to others. But (and this is the big worry): we’re producing and exporting more (certainly in rand terms), but with fewer people.

In real terms, mining was 7.3% of total GDP in 2016, below the 8% average over the last decade. Primary mineral exports as a percentage of the total was at 21% in 2016, and as a percentage of merchandise exports, it was 28%. Both of these are below the averages over the past decade, of 23.8% and 32%, respectively.

When it comes to fixed investment, the picture is even scarier. The year-on-year growth rate declined by 1% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. But, in the absence of other meaningful increases in fixed investment elsewhere in the economy, mining’s contribution to gross fixed capital formation is at 18%, the highest it’s been since 2009-2011.

The Chamber cautions that “although gross fixed investment has declined by only about 1% on average since 2013, the fact that the sector is really in survival mode is reflected in a progressively worsening net investment trend: -2.5% in 2013, -0.4% in 2014, -10.5% in 2015 and a more than 100% contraction in 2016”.

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