JSE springs a record for the September quarter

That the JSE All Share index gained 15.2% in the quarter to end-September – after hitting a new high a few points short of 87 800 – brings to mind the the old saying “lies, damned lies and statistics” (attributed to Mark Twain, according to some).

The 15%-plus gain within the space of three months and the new record are both remarkable, but this statistic ignores the fact the index has increased by ‘only’ 14.3% since the start of the year.

And while the numbers will show that the index was pushed to a record high by the large, mostly international companies with dual listings on the JSE, it is interesting that shares of local companies performed exceptionally well.

It seems the run in SA Inc shares promised by experts for the better part of a year eventually happened.

Consumer favourites did well: from the beginning of June Mr Price gained 32%, OUTsurance 31%, Pepkor 27%, Dis-Chem 25%, and Capitec and Clicks both 17%. Nedbank and Standard Bank did their bit too.

Obviously, the 21% increase in the price of Naspers shares and the nearly 17% in that of Prosus were the big contributors to the index reaching a new record, largely on the back of the China economic stimulus last week.

The biggest companies posting large declines during the three months were Sasol and Aspen (15%), Kumba Iron Ore (12%); and Glencore (10%).

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Largest increases

As usual, the largest price increases (and decreases) during the last quarter were recorded in the share prices of low-priced stocks, mostly those of smaller companies. Here a change of a few cents would equal huge change when calculated as a percentage.

There is no better example of this than Numeral XII. Nothing changed there and the share jumped 100% only because someone bought some shares at the offer price of two cents compared to a shareholder selling some at the bid of one cent at the beginning of the period.

However, it is interesting that local companies feature among the largest gainers. Stefanutti Stocks started running and increased by more than 150% to nearly R5 per share after it published results at the end of May showing that operational profit increased from R101 million to R210 million in the financial year to February 2024.

It also announced that the sale of a struggling operation in Mozambique is progressing.

Kore Potash shareholders welcomed the announcement at the end of July that its project to start mining is going well. The price share jumped 124% for a 12-month gain of more than 400%.

Homechoice ran after delivering good results for the six months to end-June 2024, and management’s comments that prospects for the foreseeable future are positive.

Europa Metals jumped on the news that it is selling its mining project in Spain and is planning to acquire another in Ireland.

Brait and Sasfin both gained because of corporate action, with the latter jumping from R18 to above R28 when it announced an offer of R30 to minorities and that the financial services group would delist from the stock exchange.

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Losers

It is noticeable that the list of shares that fell during the last three months is much shorter, and the losses are very small relative to the gainers.

The biggest decline was reported by Sable Exploration and Mining (Seam), a share that posted strong gains earlier in the year when it jumped from 19 cents to R1. It crashed 79% back to 21 cents when its new auditors gave the financial statements for the year a qualified opinion due to uncertainty regarding financial assets, including loans due to directors.

Many of the losses can be traced to particular circumstances.

For instance, enX Group fell exactly R5 from R10 to R5 after paying a R5 dividend.

Cilo Cybin, the cannabis company trying its luck in artificial intelligence pharmaceutical methodologies, dropped more than 50% (on small volumes) as investors apparently gave up on the company.

It published a statement at the end of July: “The company did not carry on any commercial or business operations from the date of incorporation until the end of the financial period under review being 31 March 2024. The company has not entered into any formal and binding acquisition agreements to acquire viable assets at the date of this announcement.”

Ironically, chrome miner Mantengu Mining got its wish for the share price to fall after the share price doubled earlier the year when management reported to the JSE that it suspected price manipulation. Meanwhile, it reported that things were going as planned.

Shares in controversial technology group Ayo continue to fall.

They lost another 46% during the past three months, falling 99% since their inflated listing price of R44.

Only further down the list does one find ‘normal’ declines among better-known companies.

Mining and commodity companies Jubilee Metals, Copper 360, African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), Sasol, Kumba Iron Ore and Northam are all suffering under the slump in commodity prices and a stronger rand.

In the interests of accuracy – another notable fact is that the phrase “lies, damned lies and statistics” was coined in 1893 and first reported in 1895, long before the publication of famous writer Mark Twain’s autobiography in 1924.

This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.