Inflation up marginally in November

Annual consumer price inflation increased marginally in November to 2.9% from 2.8% in October coming in lower than the 3.3% some economists expected.

According to Statistics SA, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged month-on-month in November 2024. Inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services, while the CPI is a way to measure inflation.

The main contributors to the 2.9% inflation rate were:

• Housing and utilities increased by 4.7% and contributed 1.1 percentage points.
• Miscellaneous goods and services increased by 6.6% and contributed 1.0 percentage point.
• Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 2.3% and contributed 0.4 of a percentage point.
• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased by 4.5% and contributed 0.3 of a percentage point.

Transport was the only negative contributor, decreasing by 3.3% and contributing 0.5 of a percentage point.

In November the annual inflation rate for goods was 1.6%, up from 1,4% in October, while services were 4.3%, down from 4.4% in October.

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Food inflation lowest in 14 years

Annual inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased sharply again in November, slowing to 2.3% from 3.6% in October.

Statistics SA says this marks the lowest rate for the category since December 2010, when it stood at 1.6%.

Eight of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages groups registered lower rates, including:

• vegetables, milk, eggs and cheese;
• hot beverages;
• bread and cereals;
• cold beverages;
• meat;
• sugar, sweets and desserts; and
• the miscellaneous category ‘other’ food.

The rate for fish was flat, while oils and fats and fruit recorded steeper price increases.

The annual rate for bread and cereals moderated further, cooling to its lowest level in almost three years. According to Statistics SA, important items such as brown bread, white bread, maize meal, cold cereals, pasta and rice recorded lower rates, but inflation quickened for several products, including samp and hot cereals.

Annual milk, eggs and cheese inflation declined to its lowest level in almost five-and-a-half years. After burning a hole in households’ food budgets for much of 2024, egg inflation descended into deflationary territory in November, falling to -3.7%, down from a high of 39.9% a year ago.

Graph showing food and beverage products that recorded significant price changes in November:

Other notable price changes were for fuel that increased by 0.9% month-on-month, taking the annual rate to -13.6% from -19.1% in October.

The price index for the restaurants and hotels category increased by 5.9% in the 12 months to November, with increases recorded for restaurants (+5.1%) and hotels (+7.5%). Annual inflation for restaurants and hotels is down from the recent high of 7.5% in June this year.

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Inflation hits poor hardest

Statistics SA calculates inflation rates for 10 expenditure categories, providing insight into the impact on various socio-economic groups.

The poorest households shouldered the highest inflation rate since January 2022, peaking at 11.3% in April 2023. This declined to 3.8% in November 2024 but remains the highest across all expenditure categories.

By contrast, the wealthiest households registered an annual increase of 3.0% in November, slightly above the headline rate.

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Inflation in the provinces

Statistics SA calculates provincial rates as well. In November the provinces with the highest inflation rates were Western Cape (3.4%), Free State (3.2%) and KwaZulu-Natal (3.1%). Inflation in the Western Cape remained above the headline rate for the period January to November 2024.

Limpopo (2.4%) and Mpumalanga (2.5%) recorded the lowest rates in November.