How GNU works in other countries and what SA can expect

How does a Government of National Unity (GNU) work in other countries? What can South Africans expect of our own version? And of course, what will be the best option for the economy?

President Cyril Ramaphosa, in his capacity as leader of the African National Congress (ANC), has announced that the party’s preferred approach is to form a government of national unity (GNU).

Webber Wentzel partner Lubumba Kamukwamba, consultant Michael Evans and trainee attorney Thomas Greig say national unity entails the coming together of any number of represented political parties and is likely to be preceded by a series of negotiations to determine the precise contours of the power-sharing regime.

“Ramaphosa’s announcement of a potential GNU may be mildly comforting to South Africans who may have been concerned about a “minority government” outcome, an inherently unstable regime where the party that secured most of the vote, albeit not a majority forms a government that can only function and carry out its duties to the extent that it has support to do so from at least some of the other political parties.”

Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig agree the ANC may be inclined to choose the option as it knows any parliamentary decision supported by the DA will be passed and if the DA opposes it, it will likely get enough support from other political parties for the resolution to be passed.

GNU could entail a formal coalition agreement

On the other hand, they point out, that a GNU may entail a formal coalition arrangement among any number of political parties to achieve a shared or mutually agreed majority. In exchange for securing this majority status, parties to the coalition agree to share certain powers and functions in the executive as well as the legislature. They emphasise this option requires compromises, even at a policy level.

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Another possible element of the proposed GNU may be a confidence and supply (C&S) Agreement, they say. For this agreement, political parties agree to support the ANC but only in two crucial respects: motions of no confidence (confidence) and budget appropriations and related financial matters (supply).

“When it comes to just about everything else, including in relation to key policies, the parties may remain opposed. A C&S Agreement is effectively a species of a minority government, but it carves out those aspects that are crucial for a country’s stability (matters related to its confidence and financing).”

However, Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say, depending on the nature and extent of what is agreed to, a C&S Agreement could also more closely resemble a GNU, where, for example, the parties agree to allocate positions in portfolio committees or even in the cabinet.

Canada’s governs with C&S Agreement

Canada is often cited as an example of a country governed by a C&S agreement. In 2022, the Liberal Party (46%) teamed up with the smaller New Democratic Party (7%) and reached an agreement titled “Delivering for Canadians Now, A Supply and Confidence Agreement”.

Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say the agreement acknowledges that the government will pursue elements of its agenda that the New Democratic Party (NDP), as the “junior” partner, may oppose.

“The purpose of the agreement is not to compromise either party’s core ideals or deny their political differences. It is rather about ensuring that those differences do not impede service delivery. Therefore, the NDP agreed to support the government on confidence and budgetary matters based on the guiding principle of no surprises.”

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In addition, the parties agreed to certain key policy-related priorities which ventured beyond the confines of a traditional C&S Agreement, such as ensuring a better healthcare system, reducing the cost of living and tackling the climate crisis, they say.

“Interestingly, the NDP did not take up any executive powers in exchange for its support, which would be more akin to a coalition.

Where to from here for South Africa?

Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say before Ramaphosa’s announcement that the ANC was exploring a GNU, international investors and big business seemed to be cozying up to the idea of an ANC/DA coalition as the least disruptive option from an economic perspective.

“A GNU coupled with a C&S Agreement may find favour with markets depending on the content of the agreement and would certainly be preferred over a minority government without a C&S Agreement as far as potential stability is concerned. Of course, a GNU does not even get out the door if the other parties do not agree to it.”

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A GNU is reminiscent of what occurred in South Africa’s first democratic government, Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say. The GNU was led by President Nelson Mandela of the ANC, with FW De Klerk of the National Party as one of the deputy presidents.

Pik Botha (National Party) served as the first minister of minerals and energy affairs and Mangosuthu Buthelezi (Inkatha Freedom Party) as the first minister of home affairs. The first two ministers of finance came from outside parliament (Derek Keys and Chris Liebenberg).

In subsequent election cycles, it has not been uncommon for cabinet members to hail from other parties, even when the ANC enjoyed an outright majority, Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say. A recent example is the inclusion of Patricia de Lille of the Good Party in Ramaphosa’s cabinet.

Other parties in cabinet will not be a surprise

The bottom line is that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, Kamukwamba, Evans and Greig say. “The ANC’s preferred approach of a GNU depends entirely on sufficient buy-in from the other political parties and could also involve the conclusion of a C&S Agreement.

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“Therefore, it will not be surprising if the new cabinet has representatives from other parties, irrespective of the power-sharing regime that is ultimately decided upon. That could enhance the expertise and performance of the cabinet, provided new members are appointed on that basis and not simply on the basis of their political loyalty.”

“In the absence of sufficient support, the alternative options remain on the table. Despite the prevailing uncertainties, one thing is for certain: the first sitting of parliament must take place no more than 14 days after the election results were declared.”