Global peacefulness deteriorates for the ninth year

Global peacefulness has deteriorated for the ninth year in a row, with deaths from global conflict increasing by 96% to 238 000 and Ukraine recording the largest deterioration, falling 14 places to 157^th, with 65% of the men between the ages of 20 and 24 fleeing the country or dying in the conflict.

According to the 17th edition of the Global Peace Index from international think-tank, the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), new data also shows a higher number of conflict deaths in Ethiopia than Ukraine, eclipsing the previous global peak during the Syrian war.

Conflict-related deaths increased by 96% compared to the year before and are now at the highest level this century.

South Africa ranked as the 130th most peaceful country, falling 8 places since the year before and ranking 32nd out of 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The regional average score is 2.280 with South Africa scoring 2.405, while the regional average change in score is a decrease of 0.013, with South Africa below average at 0.099.

The overall deterioration in score in sub-Saharan Africa was driven by increases in both internal and external conflicts fought, as well as a rise in violent demonstrations.

The epicentre of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa into sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel.

Sub-Saharan Africa was also one of the four regions accounting for most of the global increase in violence since 2008 along with MENA, South America and Central America and the Caribbean.

Deaths from terrorism have been increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, while decreasing in every other region since 2019. Terrorism impact improved in every region except sub-Saharan Africa over the past four years.

In sub-Saharan Africa, Mali recorded the largest deterioration with conflict-related deaths increasing by 154%, while violence against civilians rose by 570%. Eswatini experienced the next largest drop in peacefulness in the region.

Coastal West Africa is at its most peaceful since reporting began in 2008, with countries in the region recording an average improvement of 5% in the past 14 years.

The coastal region between Morocco and Ghana recorded no deaths from terrorism in 2022, in contrast to the neighbouring countries in the Sahel.

ALSO READ: Armed men kill at least 30 in north Nigeria villages

Global peacefulness falls as conflicts become internationalised

Globally, 79 countries witnessed increased levels of conflict, including Ethiopia, Myanmar, Ukraine, Israel and South Africa and the global economic impact of violence increased by 17% or $1 trillion, to $17.5 trillion in 2022, equivalent to 13% of global GDP.

Conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 91 countries now involved in some form of external conflict, up from 58 in 2008.

Despite the conflict in Ukraine, 92 countries improved on military expenditure and 110 decreased their military personnel.

The impact of the war in Ukraine also affects peacefulness and the economic impact of violence has increased by 479% or $449 billion, equivalent to 64% of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The number of Ukrainians who were either refugees or internally displaced jumped from 1.7% before the conflict to over 30% and is likely to continue increasing.

The report estimates 83 000 deaths are related to the conflict so far.

Despite the conflict, Russia’s incarceration rate, violent demonstrations, the index shows that terrorism impact and homicide rates improved over the past year with the homicide rate at its lowest since 2008.

The global number of refugees and internally displaced people continue to rise and there are now 15 countries with over 5% of their population displaced.

A total of 84 countries recorded an improvement in peacefulness and 79 a deterioration, although the deteriorations were larger than the improvements, as the post-Covid increases of civil unrest and political instability remain high while regional and global conflicts accelerate.  

Iceland remains the most peaceful country, a position it has held since 2008, followed by Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand and Austria.

Afghanistan is the least peaceful country for the sixth consecutive year, followed by Yemen, Syria, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ten of the 23 indicators improved, 11 deteriorated and two stayed the same. The largest deteriorations were in External Conflicts Fought and Deaths from Internal Conflict. Other notable deteriorations included Neighbouring Country Relations and Political Instability, where 59 countries deteriorated. 

ALSO READ: Global peace report gives SA a klap – again

Increase in financial impact of violence

The impact of violence on the global economy increased by $1 trillion to a record $17.5 trillion, equivalent to 13% of global GDP, approximately $2,200 per person.

This was due to increased military expenditure owing to the Ukraine war. The disparity in the economic impact of violence is stark: the ten countries most affected averaged 34% of GDP, compared to just 3% for the ten least affected.

Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP, says the index highlights the contrasting dynamics of militarisation and conflict.

“On the one hand, the majority of countries are decreasing their reliance on the military, while on the other hand an increasing number of conflicts are becoming internationalised. Conflict deaths are the highest since the Rwandan genocide which had over 800 000 deaths and sparked a wave of global action.”

After the Afghanistan, Iraq and Syrian wars and now the Ukraine war it is obvious that the most powerful armies cannot prevail against a well-resourced local population, he points out.

“War has become mostly unwinnable and an increasingly heavy economic burden.

He says conflicts increases, with 79 countries deteriorating in the Ongoing Conflict domain, with

The Ethiopian conflict claimed the most lives in 2022, with new data finding that battlefield deaths were over 100 000, while disease and famine-related deaths were conservatively estimated at over 200 000.

Killelea says this conflict has been largely hidden from the media due to domestic media restrictions and internet blackouts that coincided with US and UN aid organisations stopping food shipments because of corruption in the food supply chains.

Europe is still the most peaceful region in the world, despite military expenditure and Neighbouring Country Relations deteriorating due to the Ukraine war.

The region is still home to seven of the ten most peaceful countries although the level of violent demonstrations, protests and riots remain high.