Eskom’s winter success: 142 days without load shedding amid improved coal fleet efficiency

Since the start of Eskom’s financial year on 1 April, there has not been a single hour of load shedding. In fact, South Africa’s reprieve from rotational power cuts started on 26 March, meaning that by 5am on Thursday, there will have been 142 days of constant power supply.

That this has been the case during winter is quite the feat. Peak power demand is typically 3 000MW to 4 000MW higher during winter than in summer. 

In recent weeks, it has had an average of 33 000MW of available capacity compared to its “likely scenario” in its winter forecast of closer to 28 000MW.

ALSO READ: Eskom reduces diesel bill by R9.5bn as it keeps load shedding at bay

This would’ve seen 50 days of load shedding with a ‘peak’ of Stage 2 between April and August. Despite winter being nearly over, it reiterates that its forecast remains “in force”. 

Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said on Monday that “the numbers do indicate that we are within touching distance” of ending load shedding permanently.

Big cut in diesel use

Notably, Eskom has achieved this turnaround without burning more diesel than last year.

Rumours and conjecture ahead of the elections at the end of May suggested that government had been burning tons of diesel as a ploy to garner votes. This has been disproved by Eskom.

Until the first week of August, it has spent just R3.5 billion on diesel for its open cycle gas turbines (OGCTs), nearly a full R10 billion less than the same period last year.

ALSO READ: WATCH: Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan yielding continuous light

The load factor for the OCGTs for the financial year thus far is hovering around 5%, compared to an astonishing four times as much (20.6%) over the same period. 

Also significant is that Koeberg Unit 2 (around 950MW) remains offline for its steam generator replacement. Also outstanding is regulatory approval of its extension of life. The unit is scheduled to return to service in September, which will give Eskom headroom for additional maintenance in the summer months. 

Coal fleet’s ‘impressive’ performance

Central to the turnaround, however, has been fixing the performance of the coal fleet.

This has seen unplanned breakdowns reduce to the 10 500MW level (on average). Its energy availability factor (EAF) in July was 67.41% – an impressive performance, considering in the same month last year, it was more than 10 percentage points lower.

Since April, the EAF has increased to 63% from 55% over the same period in 2023.

In the first week of August, nine of its coal stations achieved an EAF of above 60% with five of these exceeding 70%. 

Five of the nine stations were on the priority list in its recovery plan. 

Tutuka, one of its ‘most broken’ coal power stations, has seen its performance improve dramatically. Ramokgopa said “from March to August, the unplanned capacity loss factor [UCLF] has reduced by 29%”.

ALSO READ: JSE hits Eskom with R3 million fine for lack of transparency

“That’s significant from where Tutuka started; they’ve moved from 2 411MW to 949MW.”

There have been similar improvements at Kendal and Kriel, with unplanned outages reducing from 2 500MW to 900MW and 1 400MW to 500MW respectively.  

More planned maintenance

The strong performance has enabled Eskom to perform more planned maintenance than planned. This is sitting at about 5 500MW, from the less than 5 000MW it anticipated. 

So far in this financial year, its planned outage factor is at nearly 13%, versus 11% for the same period in 2023. This will ramp up as it historically does most of its maintenance in summer. 

ALSO READ: New tariff structure may raise costs for some Eskom users

Eskom will receive a further boost with the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 6 (800MW) and the return to service of Medupi Unit 4 (800MW). The latter exploded a month after the ‘official’ completion of the power station in 2021.

A replacement generator was sourced in the Netherlands last year. It arrived in March. Once Unit 6 at Kusile achieves commercial operation, that station will also finally be complete.

Eskom will share its forecast for summer in the coming weeks. Based on its current performance, we should expect good news. 

This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here