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Following sparked fear over the possibility of cocoa production shortage, favourable weather conditions could bring relief to the industry.
The Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service in the United States says cocoa producers in West Africa can expect a La Niña weather pattern later in the year.
A La Niña weather pattern provides cooler temperatures and the possibility of more rainfalls in some areas.
Leeuwner Esterhuysen, Economist Oxford Economics Africa says the impact the El Niño weather pattern has had on agriculture in almost a decade will be undone. El Niño weather pattern provides warmer temperatures, which can result in drier conditions.
“La Niña, which is triggered when trade winds are stronger than usual and channel warm water towards Asia, is set to arrive between August and October and could last into the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season.”
La Niña is expected to benefit crop production in Africa, as it will bring improved rainfall. The arrival of the weather pattern will bring relief from the impacts El Niño caused. El Niño has left most African countries in drought conditions.
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Jonathan Parkman, head of agricultural sales at commodities broker Marex told Bloomberg that there is a relationship between El Niño and weaker crops and between La Niña and strong crops. It will take some time to see major bounce-backs from the transition of El Niño to La Niña, as El Niño has been present for quite some time.
Esterhuysen says should the cooler temperatures and higher rainfall arrive between August and September, there will be positive results by the start of the cocoa crop harvest season that starts in October. “The timing of La Niña is key.”
However, if the weather pattern is more modest than expected, cocoa producers will not be able to take advantage of the conditions as predicted.
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As the weather pattern is expected to benefit cocoa producers in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, La Niña will pose the risk of dry conditions in Ecuador, the world’s third-largest cocoa producer after Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
“Yet, the South American nation has relatively well-established irrigation systems, potentially limiting the effects of the weather pattern,” adds Esterhuysen.
As far as Africa’s cocoa producers are concerned, even with La Niña expected to favour the areas, there is still worry over access to fertiliser and the control of diseases.
