5 price changes breakfast lovers should know, and the reasons why

Good news for breakfast lovers as the price of essential breakfast ingredients seems lower than it was a year ago, according to experts.

Just bear in mind though, while the price tag on items like cooking oil has slipped, other items like bacon might require you to break the piggy bank.

It’s hard to ignore the pocket pinch from rising food prices over recent months – and Senior Agricultural Economist at FNB, Paul Makube, agreed.

“The past few months were very tough,” he said, adding there were multiple factors at play.

“There’s a deeper story behind the volatility in prices of staple foods like milk, eggs, meat, bread, and grains,” he said.

Here’s how your breakfast table could change, and the underlying causes for the transformation.

READ: Household food basket prices increase again

Bigger and better omelettes

Sunny-side up? A good omelette sure does require a lot of eggs – now you can spoil yourself without breaking the bank.

Makube said although egg prices had increased since the beginning of 2023, the situation had since improved.

“The situation improved following the decline in grain prices,” he added.

According to the expert, constrained consumer disposable income had caused a decline in demand, which resulted in a price drop – saving consumers 2.5% y/y on a half dozen pack of eggs, and 10% y/y on a box of 18-eggs.

ALSO READ: Woolworths has most expensive groceries in July, Makro the cheapest

Bring out the deep fryer

You can now stop re-using that cooking oil, thanks to recent consecutive oil price drops.

Sunflower oil has been on a slippery slope since the start of 2023, with prices declining further in the last three months.

“[The] oil and fats subindex was in the negative territory for the third consecutive month at minus 12.9% y/y in July from negative 9.5% and minus 2.4% in June and May 2023, respectively,” said Makube.

He attributed the oil price free-fall to improved availability of oil and fat products, and “the spill-over weakness from the international market.”

While you’ll be able to crack and fry those eggs for a lot less, you might have to spend that “discount” on the more expensive breakfast ingredients.

ALSO READ: Food basket prices up by over R500 in a year confirms cost-of-living crisis

Bacon-less ‘bacon and eggs’?

You might have to break the piggy bank to bring the bacon home though, as bacon and ham prices increased by 10.7% and 8.8% y/y in July.

Makube said despite last year’s 9% growth in SA pork production, high feed prices left pork producers under profit pressure.

As a “net importer of pork,” the expert said the local industry is also affected by international trends, such as the recent increase in the price of European pork – said “due to declining availability and high input costs.”

“And uncertainty surrounding new animal welfare standards served to push up the prices of your pork sausages and favourite cuts of bacon,” he added.  

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Bowls getting smaller

If you can’t go without cereal for your breakfast, then you might need to brace yourself for some serious pocket shrinkage as cereal prices continue to soar.

Makube said the increase in grain and cereal prices could be blamed on hot and dry weather conditions in the northern hemisphere.

Additionally, Makube said a weaker rand, global economic uncertainties, rising global interest rates and load-shedding were significant contributing factors.

ALSO READ: July inflation lowest in two years

Bottomless milk, anyone?

Keeping the milk jar filled to the brim could cost you more.

While acknowledging the significant national decline in dairy farms over the last 15 years, with just over 1000 remaining, Makube said other factors had contributed to a consistent increase in the price of fresh milk.

Most notably, Makube said the increased import of UHT (long-life) milk presented a challenge for local farmers.

“The lower cost of UHT milk compared to fresh milk has intensified competition, [putting] pressure on dairy producers,” he added.

The agricultural economist also said while dairy farmers historically relied on secondary dairy products like cheese and powdered milk to supplement their income, it was no longer the case due to a decrease in availability of milk.

ALSO READ: Inflation: Milk, eggs and cheese prices sky rocket to its highest in 14 years

Future predictions

“Fortunately, when it comes to the price of your breakfast, it’s not all doom and gloom,” Makube said.

Encouraging South Africans to hang on tightly, the agricultural economist said various trends indicate the likelihood of food prices “normalising” in the upcoming months.

“Assuming there are no further economic shocks in the second half of 2023, there’s a good chance that a Sunday morning fry-up might cost you a little less this coming summer,” Makube concluded.

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