Markets will react positively to ‘fiscal discipline’ 2023 budget contained – economists

Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana delivered a solid and balanced budget on Wednesday and economists believe that the markets will react positively to the fiscal discipline it contained. It was as good as we could have hoped for, given the current economic conditions.

Independent economist prof. Bonke Dumisa says he was impressed with the budget, but he did notice that the minister spent very little time on Eskom. He thinks the 125% tax rebate for businesses to install solar panels is a step in the right direction, although the 25% rebate for consumers is neither here nor there.

“He tried his best within his means with the increases in social grants and I appreciate that he gave the NPA an additional R1.5 billion to stop corruption. I wish there was more to give because more convictions will make it easier to get the money back from the proceeds of crime. An increase in fuel levies is also welcome, but the volatility of international crude oil prices will still leave us exposed.”

Prof. Jannie Rossouw, visiting professor at the Wits Business School, says the minister said what he expected. He says government is giving tax rebates to consumers and businesses to generate electricity to ensure that load shedding is less of an issue by the election next year.

“However, I am worried about the public sector wage bill as we do not know what will happen if government’s wage offer is rejected. What I did like was that more will be done to stop tobacco smuggling, because this is costing us a lot of revenue.”

ALSO READ: Government to take on Eskom’s debt of R254 billion

Map to fiscal sustainability

Arthur Kamp, chief economist at Sanlam Investments, says National Treasury has lifted the expected government debt trajectory, but importantly continues to map a path to fiscal sustainability and a lower government debt ratio in the long-term.

“However, fiscal policy is not benign with respect to its impact on the economy. Our sovereign debt rating remains sub-investment grade. Accordingly, real interest rates are high and government continues to absorb a large share of available resources. In the absence of firm foreign capital inflows, this constrains private sector investment and job creation.”

Frank Blackmore, lead economist at KPMG, was impressed by the infrastructure spending Godongwana announced, as well as no major tax proposals based on a higher-than-expected revenue collection which was even higher than the medium-term budget policy statement from last October.

“It is also good that Treasury sounds committed to limit the size of the public sector wage bill and increases. It is also a good signal to the international credit agencies and signals the fiscal constraint we have been talking about over the past few years.”

Tertia Jacobs, treasury economist at Investec, says the improvement in Eskom’s cash flow, allowing it to burn more diesel and confidently embark on its maintenance and fixed investment programme, reduces some of the downside risks to GDP growth.

Johann van Tonder, economist for group strategy at Momentum Metropolitan, says for him, the good news was that government is back to being a going concern with revenue exceeding non-interest expenditure.

“This enabled government to provide personal income tax relief to consumers, as well as incentives for consumers to buy solar panels, putting almost R20 billion back into consumers’ pockets. The minister also dealt very well with the Eskom situation.”

Hannes van den Berg, CEO at Consult by Momentum, says he is concerned about the country’s imminent grey listing.

“The minister’s closing comments implied that this would soon be a reality, which will make offshore investment far more challenging and place a massive administrative burden on the financial services sector.”

ALSO READ: Here’s how going solar will score households and businesses some tax relief

Hope for SMEs but no support

Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue, says the minister offered hope to the business sector, but he found it disappointing that there was no emphasis on assisting the SME sector, as they are the drivers of economic growth at a time when the country is at a tipping point, spurred on by the energy crisis and continual fiscal challenges.

“The elephant in the room is the 30.3 million South Africans currently living below the poverty line and battling to put enough food on the table, in the face of a cost-of-living catastrophe the likes of which we have never seen before.”

Business Leadership SA said it expected the country’s fiscal trajectory to weaken given the Eskom debt transfer and while the high debt level is a concern, this was necessary to help address the crippling effects of loadshedding.

“Addressing the energy crisis was always going to be central to this budget and Eskom’s debt relief of R254 billion was larger than expected, an acknowledgement of how critical it is to free up financing for Eskom to be able to operate more efficiently.”

Dr Elna Moolman, head of macroeconomic, fixed income and currency research at Standard Bank expects the financial market reaction to likely be neutral. “Investors will draw some comfort from the continuity of the general fiscal intent and more clarity about the fiscal impact of support for Eskom.”

However, she says, fiscal risks persist and investors will naturally still be concerned about the downside risks to the economic growth trajectory amidst the surge in load shedding and a less supportive global economic backdrop, as well as upside risk to spending on social grants, wages and SOE support.

ALSO READ: NPA receives R1.3 billion to implement state capture inquiry recommendations

A distinctly human budget

Angelika Goliger, chief economist at EY Africa, says it was a distinctly human budget, with a significant amount of sympathy and some relief considering the current hardships of the high cost of living, higher borrowing costs and constant load shedding with no new tax increases and relief for households and businesses across the board.

“This budget also signals that the support South Africa received from the global economic environment over the past two years is coming to an end. The global economic environment is highly uncertain and volatile, with the extent of the moderation in global economic growth a much-debated topic.”

Jeff Miller, founder of the Twelve B Green Energy Fund, says the minister must be congratulated on his foresight to increase the Section 12B tax allowance from 100% to 125% for businesses that install solar.

“This move will give our investors an increased return from 14% to 18%, which is an unbelievable return for a moderate risk investment. These incentives bode well for South Africa, for the Twelve B Green Energy Fund and the acquisition of renewable energy.” 

Garth Rossiter, chief risk officer at Lulalend, says the state promises to be as frugal with its national budget as we, the South African people have become with our household budgets.

“SMEs and entrepreneurs will be happy to see no major tax increases. However, the limited tax revenue increases appear to be a result of an efficient Sars operation, rather than economic growth.”

He also noticed that Godongwana’s speech indicated an intention to review and possibly even reduce the 18.65% Eskom tariff increase set for implementation on 1 April.

“This year’s budget speech captured the stark reality of South Africa’s current economic situation. Yet, despite the challenges facing the country, there are reasons for hope, including the emphasis on sustainable energy.”

Dr Andrew Golding, CE of the Pam Golding Property Group, found it welcome news that the brackets of the transfer duty table will be increased by 10 per cent, allowing properties below R1.1 million to avoid any transfer duty payments.

ALSO READ: SAA and Post Office to receive massive bailouts from govt

Support for food production is good news

Roelie van Reenen, supply chain executive at Beefmaster Group, says he was pleased to hear that the budget recognises the burden on South African consumers due to the electricity crisis, which has highlighted the cost of food production.

“Government acknowledges that food manufacturers may have no other option but to pass on the increased cost of production to an already struggling consumer, which they are trying to address through targeted measures. We are particularly pleased that government plans to ease the impact of the electricity crisis on food prices by extending the refund on the Road Accident Fund levy to food manufacturers.”

Kulani Siweya, chief economist at Agri SA, says while government could have gone further in addressing the challenges facing the agricultural sector, the budget reflected a sober analysis of the economic environment and an understanding of the particular difficulties faced by the sector with significant implications for food security.

“Agri SA also acknowledges the measures put in place to assist the agricultural sector while government works to put Eskom on a firmer footing. Of particular note is the extension of the rebate of the Road Accident Fund levy for diesel used by manufacturers of foodstuff. This intervention will help to contain the cost of food production to the benefit of consumers.”