Warren Kennedy takes on maths boffins at Fairview

The “law of averages” is trashed by mathematicians. They call it the gambler’s fallacy, the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances. This is probably because they haven’t yet come up with a theorem to prove what most people believe to be true due to common sense.

This week’s race meeting at Fairview could be a test case for conflicting notions of the law of averages.

Jockey Warren Kennedy is way out front in the jockeys’ championship race, having notched nearly 150 winners around the country in the first six months of the season. Curiously, he hasn’t ridden a winner in Eastern Cape in a month – despite being a regular visitor to the Windy City and riding for its leading trainer Gavin Smith.

Kennedy and Smith have a winner-to-runner rate of 14.5% this season – but it’s 0% from 23 attempts in the past 30-odd days.

Kennedy swings his leg over seven Smith runners when racing returns to the Fairview turf track on Friday – and the maths boffins should be sweating.

The pair’s best chances are Eshraaq in Race 3, Ideal View in Race 4 and Ferrari Ice in Race 7.

Ideal View seems to be the most likely among them as he takes on a Novice Handicap field of no great shakes. This gelding is a stroppy sort but has shown plenty of talent in posting a win and a third in three starts.

With just 52kg to lug and in Kennedy’s experienced hands, Ideal View presents a more-than-average chance and is even a banker option.

SELECTIONS

1: Chere For Me, 6 Glitterfox, 4 Chevely Moon, 9 Likeable

2: 3 Miss Rose, 7 Miss United States, 8 Romanoff, 1 Rose Of Mine

3: 4 Eshraaq, 3 Silver Slippers, 2 Arion Of Adrast, 8 A Foreign Affair

4: 8 Ideal View, 6 Opulence, 10 Flash Gala, 4 Homer Fidget

5: 5 Great Warrior, 1 Cairon, 3 American Landing, 2 Palo Alto

6: 7 Shine A Light, 2 Freedom Seeker, 4 Herrin, 3 Tallahassee

7: 2 Ferrari Ice, 12 Great Guy, 11 Wangan Midnight, 1 Teofilio

8: 8 Europeana, 13 Vizhoe’s Magic, 12 Kayc Al, 10 Scarborough Fair

Pick 6: 1,2,3,4,8,11 x 8 x 1,2,3,5,7,9 x 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 x 1,2,5,9,10,11,12 x 8 (R1764)

PA: 3,7 x 3,4 x 8 x 1,3,5 x 2,4,7 x 2,12 x 8 (R72)