Nel and GvN add up in the numbers game

Statistics often get a bad rap, being bracketed with lies and damn lies. But that’s usually when politicians are using them. Other clever people, from Moneyball sports analysts to insurance company actuaries, will tell you that stats are your friend.

There are few, if any, better teams in racing when it comes to statistics than Andre Nel and Grant van Niekerk. The Cape Town trainer-jockey duo have a first four finishers-to-runners ratio nearing 70%.

That’s a number that should turn the head of any punter.

Nel and Van Niekerk get together with three horses in three successive races at Kenilworth on Wednesday and it wouldn’t be a major surprise to see them pull off the treble. Pick 3, All To Come and Doubles punters take note.

Sunday Island in Race 3 is banging on the door to be let out of the maiden ranks, with three seconds in his last four runs. He’s been a beaten favourite twice recently, so there’ll be some determination to get the three-year-old Aussie import over the line this time.

Next up is Double Charge in Race 6, an MR80 Handicap over 1200m. and is bang in form. The son of Twice Over never runs a bad race, so a drum is a given – if you rely on stats.

The “hat-trick” horse is Izapha in the seventh, an MR96 Handicap featuring some useful horses. He’ll be the longest shot of the three, but is having his peak run following a three-month freshener and showed plenty of zest when third last time.

SELECTIONS

1: 13 King Of Colts, 1 Bluff On Bluff, 16 Trivial Matter, 4 Ridge To Reef

2: 4 All About Al, 3 Spring Awakening, 1 Irish Morning, 5 T’Challa

3: 8 Miss Greenlight, 12 What A Cherry, 1 Perfect Trust, 5 Raising Quinn

4: 3 Zippy Over, 5 Ntinga, 4 Magic Moments, 7 High Dudgeon

5: 5 Sunday Island, 7 Thunder Master, 9 Global Forests, 2 Douglas

6: 5 Double Charge, 3 Voldemort, 8 Queen’s World, 4 Trasact

7: 7 Izapha, 3 After The Rain, 4 Adios Amigos, 2 Look For Hounds

8: 7 Winchester Mansion, 3 Fort Red, 6 Han Solo, 8 Let It Burn

Pick 6: 8,12 x 3,5 x 2,5,6,7,9,10 x 2,3,4,5,8 x 2,3,4,7 x 3,6,7,8 (R1920)

PA: 3,4 x 8 x 3 x 5,7,9 x 3,5 x 3,4,7 x 3,7 (R72)