Desperate Zuma taking a gamble with Gordhan recall

Zuma, who will be 75 next month, feels his power waning and is lashing out in desperation.

President Jacob Zuma and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Gordhan is standing firm against any political pressure. Flickr/GovernmentZA

Whatever uncertainties arise from President Jacob Zuma’s latest behaviour, one thing is clear: he is asserting his authority, showing who’s boss.

Paradoxically, he is also losing power. In December, he will relinquish the ANC presidency. There’s not much he can do about that, except stack the decks in his favour.

By ordering Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to return home immediately from an international roadshow, Zuma was flexing muscle. He needed to do that because his authority is being challenged.

Much is made of the balance of power within the ANC’s 86-member national executive committee (NEC). Permutations of popularity in that large group are speculative, even if most NEC members are beholden to Zuma for their jobs in Cabinet and elsewhere. They know he can take away their sources of income.

Within a smaller group, it is easier to detect which way the wind is blowing. The ANC top six consist of Zuma, his deputy Cyril Ramaphosa, national chair Baleka Mbete, secretary-general Gwede Mantashe, deputy secretary-general Jesse Duarte and treasurer-general Zweli Mkhize.

Until recently the top six were evenly split, with Duarte and Mbete supporting Zuma against the others. Lately, however, Mbete has realised Zuma is not going to support her bid to be his successor.

He is backing Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for the ANC presidency, as his ex-wife is most likely to protect him from prosecution.

You may recall that after serving briefly as deputy president of the country, Mbete declined to be sworn in as an MP after the 2009 elections. She had expected to be retained as deputy and was angry when the post was denied her.

This time around, Mbete may also have intuited the wisdom of the ancient Roman general Pompey the Great, who said: “More people worship the rising than the setting sun”.

In other words, Zuma is on his way out.

The new balance of power in the top six is evident in the fate of Andile Lungisa, who was elected ANC leader in the Nelson Mandela Bay region. He had been warned by Mantashe not to stand for the position because he would be breaking party rules. Zuma contradicted Mantashe, and congratulated Lungisa. Undeterred, Mantashe responded by summoning Lungisa and ordering him to step down.

In this tit-for-tat, Zuma lost face. After a tense NEC meeting, Zuma on Monday cracked the whip where he still has power – in Cabinet.

The recall of Gordhan has also been linked to two court cases. Gordhan has a role in Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini’s Constitutional Court woes around the social grants debacle. And he is central to the Guptas’ tussle with the banks. In that case, Zuma is taking sides against his own minister. He could indeed be doing the bidding of Gupta puppet-masters.

But the psychological dimension cannot be ruled out. Zuma, who will be 75 next month, feels his power waning. Lame-duck status beckons. He is lashing out in desperation, regardless of the destruction wreaked upon a nation he pledged to serve.

He is gambling. If he overplays his hand, the party can recall him.