Experts weigh in on 2024/25 summer forecasts

After a stiflingly hot 2023/24 summer season across Zululand, KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa as a whole, and with much talk of the current El Nino state, many citizens are wondering what the upcoming season holds.

According to a report released by the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Reference Group, the 2023/24 summer season was one of the top five strongest El Nino seasons, having followed three consecutive La Nina seasons.

The strong state of last summer’s El Nino brought record warmer sea surface temperatures globally, and contributed to a record year of climate metrics, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

For South Africa, this meant below-average summer rainfall, impacting dam levels and leading to drought conditions over large parts of the summer grain production region during a critical part of the growing season, driving up the cost of maize meal.

However, southern African countries north of South Africa were worse off, leading to millions of food-insecure people.

Current state of ENSO

With a high probability of the development of La Nina in the coming months, September assessments indicate a weak La Nina state, or possibly neutral.

This could, however, change as the year progresses and summer draws closer.

What the current forecasts mean for South Africans during 2024/25 summer is a potentially wetter than average mid-summer season (December to February), while temperature forecasts indicate a warmer than average October, November and December.

However, the report stresses that it is still too early for forecasters to exclude any scenario, be it drier, wetter or average rainfall.