Above average winter rainfall forecast for KZN

Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above normal countrywide for the upcoming winter, with higher than usual rainfall predicted for KZN until May.

This is according to the South African Weather Service (SAWS) who recently issued their long-range forecast.

The seasonal weather forecast predicts that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a strong El Nino state.

This is expected to persist through the autumn before weakening, with ENSO neutral conditions by winter.

According to SAWS meteorologist Christien Engelbrecht, the Seasonal Climate Watch for March to June reveals ENSO’s typical impact on southern Africa is in favour of generally drier and warmer conditions during summer.

Engelbrecht said the transition from summer to autumn is when the cut-off low weather systems (March to May) have the highest frequency over the southern to southeastern coastal areas.

“It is, therefore, strongly recommended that the short-term weather forecasts of SAWS are routinely consulted in addition to the seasonal forecast,” said Engelbrecht.

She said SAWS’ multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country until July, except parts of KZN and the Eastern Cape where above-normal rainfall is expected until May.

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