Scientist dispels worst summer fears

NASA confidently predicts the year will be the hottest yet on record, bringing home the dreaded prospect of an even steamier summer than usual for northern KZN.

But South African Weather Service Prediction Research Scientist, Cobus Olivier, said Zululanders can keep their cool as local forecasting systems indicate wetter conditions than the past two sizzling summers, which usually helps to lower temperatures.

‘Seasonal forecasts are not indicating warmer temperatures than normal, based on a 30-year period.

‘We are expecting more rainfall which will bring relief, but it is important people realise it will not instantly end the impact of the severe drought – that will take years.

‘There will most certainly still be sweltering days, but on average it should not be worse than previous years.

‘One must be cautious about comparing South Africa with the global average.

‘Every country is impacted by climate change differently.’

Patterns
Olivier said there is a general misunderstanding that climate change is much more vigorous than what it is in reality.

‘It is evident in small gradual increases and seasonal variations in temperatures are noticeable.
‘But we will only see serious change in 100 years.

‘That said, those who still doubt global warming are wrong – it is absolutely real.’

The Seasonal Climate Watch report by the SA Weather Service for this month to March next year states there is still uncertainty regarding the development of the La Niña weather pattern, which increases the likelihood of wet conditions following the drought brought on by El Niño.

‘Irrespective of the uncertainty associated with the model forecasts, which mainly arises from those governing systems that steer the direction of the season, the unusual wet indication should be cautiously monitored, particularly over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa.

‘It is known that most of historical flooding events recorded in SA is associated with La Niña induced weather patterns.’

Nasa found record-breaking anomalies throughout the year, prompting the agency to expect 2016 to take the top hot spot in the 136 years of recorded data.

Scientists say the six-month period from January to June was the planet’s warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than the late 19th century.

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