Tropical storm expected to hit Madagascar on New Year’s Day

The first tropical system of the 2023/24 cyclone season over the SW Indian Ocean is currently developing in the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Disturbance No 1 has been under observation by various meteorological centres since yesterday (Saturday), including the SA Weather Service (SAWS) and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) at La Reunion.

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While these systems most often develop over the Indian Ocean in the region of La Reunion and travel westwards towards Madagascar and ultimately Mozambique, this particular system has developed in the Mozambique Channel and is tracking east-south-east, and poses no threat to South Africa.

According to the RSMC, Tropical Disturbance No 1 has maximum winds (sustained over 10 minutes) of 55km/h at sea, with maximum gusts of 75km/h and an estimated pressure of 1 000hPa.

The system has intensified during the course of this (Sunday) morning, and has reached the stage of tropical depression.

As the system continues its route in the Mozambique Channel towards Madagascar, it could reach the stage of moderate tropical storm this afternoon at the earliest.

It is expected to make landfall on the west coast of Madagascar tomorrow (Monday) evening or overnight into Tuesday.

The risk of intense rains, associated with strong winds, should gradually affect Madagascar from Monday, particularly in the provinces of Morondava and Toliara.

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