GUIDE: Rape statistics in South Africa

As one of South Africa’s most pressing problems, rape levels in the country gets discussed and reported on often. And as a result, many of the statistics used often cross the desks of Africa Check.

These statistics often suffer from accuracy problems.

They’re either very old (it’s highly unlikely that a 20-year-old statistic is still valid!) or they have become part of an echo chamber where the more a statistic is reported and repeated the more people accept it as true.

Some take on a life of their own as flat earth news: being so entrenched in the media and everyday use that it becomes heresy to say it is inaccurate.

This guide presents what we do and don’t know about rape in South Africa.

Number of rapes reported to the police

The South African Police Service used to publish crime statistics only once a year. This is set to change, with the minister in the presidency recently announcing that in future it will be released every three months.

Statistics of rapes reported to the police are included in the broad array of sexual offences. Although rape makes up the majority of cases, this category cannot be used in place of disaggregated rape statistics.

Year	Reported rapes
2008/9	46,647
2009/10	48,259
2010/11	48,158
2011/12	47,069
2012/13	48,408
2013/14	45,349
2014/15	43,195
2015/16	v  Not yet released

(Source: South African Police Service analysis of the 2014/15 national crime statistics)

Reported rape rate

The rape rate refers to the number of reported rapes which occur per 100,000 people. So, for example, if 43,195 rapes were reported in South Africa in 2014/15, it means that for every 100,000 people in the country there were 80 rapes reported.

Without the official data, we have calculated South Africa’s annual rape rates from 2008/09 to 2014/15 using Statistics South Africa’s mid-year population estimates. This guide will be updated if new information is provided by the police.

Year	Reported rape rate
2008/9	95
2009/10	96
2010/11	95
2011/12	91
2012/13	92
2013/14	85
2014/15	80
2015/16	Not yet released

Percentage of people raped

Unfortunately, there is no recent, nationally representative study on the percentage of people in South Africa that have been raped. The only available data – some of which is very dated or regional – only looks at the percentage of women that have been raped.

Study	Finding
The Western Cape Gender Based Violence Indicators Study (2014)	7% of women reported non-partner rape.
The Gauteng Gender Based Violence Indicators Project (2010)	25.3% of women had an experience of being raped by a “man, whether a husband or boyfriend, family member, stranger or acquaintance”.18% of women experienced “intimate partner rape on one or more occasions”.
Violence against women in three South African provinces (1999)	4.5% of respondents in the Eastern Cape, 7.2% of respondents in Mpumalanga and 4.8% of respondents in Limpopo reported “being forced or persuaded to have sex against [their] will” by being threatened, held down or hurt in some way.
South Africa’s Demographic and Health Survey (1998)	7% of women aged 15 to 49 had been “forced or persuaded” to have sex against their will by a sexual partner. 4.4% of women aged 15 to 49 had been “forced to have sex” in their lifetime.

Perpetrators

There is little information of how many people commit rape in South Africa. Data from two studies – which looked at male perpetrators – is presented below.

Study	Finding
The Western Cape Gender Based Violence Indicators Study (2014)	15% of men reported committing non-partner rape.
The Gauteng Gender Based Violence Indicators Project (2010)	37.4% of men admitted to raping a woman. 31% of men disclosed having raped a woman who was not a partner. 18.2% of men disclosed raping an intimate partner. 6.9% of men disclosed engaging in gang rape.

Percentage of rapes reported to the police

Crime statistics can reveal how many rapes are reported to the police, but they don’t tell us how many are committed. Very few studies have been conducted into the true extent of rape in South Africa.

Without recent, nationally representative data it is impossible to estimate how many people are raped each year. Two studies provide limited insight into the share of rapes that are reported to the police.

Study	Finding
The Gauteng Gender Based Violence Indicators Project (2010)	3.9% of women who had been raped (by either a partner or non-partner) had reported it to the police. 2.1% of women raped by an intimate partner had reported the crime to the police. 7.8% of women raped by a stranger or acquaintance had reported the incident to the police.
South Africa’s Demographic and Health Survey (1998)	15.2% of women aged 15 to 49 who had been forced to have sex had “sought help from the police”.

Child rape

South African Police Service data on rapes perpetrated against children. There is not a nationally representative study on the reporting rate of child rape.

Year	Reported child rapes (younger than 18)
2011/12	21,128
2012/13	20,702
2013/14	18,524

Source: South African Police Service

Note: The last two figures were provided to Africa Check in 2014 by the South African Police Service.

Guilty verdicts

South Africa’s National Prosecuting Authority publishes conviction rates for the broad categories of sexual offences. It does not provide the conviction rate for rape.

Without this data, it is impossible to say which percentage of rape cases end in a conviction.

Incorrect claims about rape in South Africa

A rape is reported every 4 minutes

This claim was made by South Africa’s Talk Radio 702 as part of a “stop rape” campaign. The station played a beep every four minutes to signify a reported rape. If this claim were correct it would mean that around 131,000 rapes are reported to police every year. According to the latest crime statistics, 43,195 rapes were reported in 2014/15.

United Nation statistics show a rape occurs every 26 seconds in South Africa

UK news channel Sky News cited the statistic when reporting on the levels of rape in South Africa in 2016. However, the statistic is nearly 20 years old and was based on an estimated – not researched – reporting rate.

South Africa is the “rape capital of the world”

The internet is littered with this claim but it is meaningless. South Africa has very high levels of reported rape. However, differing definitions of the crime, different methods of recording incidents of rape and different levels of under-reporting of rape and sexual violence of all sorts make such international comparisons impossible.

South African women not more likely to be raped than to learn how to read

This claim dates back to 2002 and has been cited by a variety of news organisations and websites. However, experts have described the statement as a “statistical horror”. The comparison is invalid and the available (although dated) data does not support the claim.

Article researched by Kate Wilkinson and supplied by Africa Check. Follow them on Facebook and Twitter for more groundbreaking stories.