Picture: Getty Images
At a time when we’re told data is king, robots are more efficient than us and artificial intelligence is taking over the world, it’s cheering to hear there’s hope for the human factor in horse racing gambling.
It’s particularly welcome that this message comes from someone renowned for making millions from mathematical expertise and number-crunching methodology.
Patrick Veitch is a famous British professional punter who has landed legendary gambles – many, but not all, as a result of intense data analysis.
But nowadays Veitch is advising young followers of the sport seeking to follow in his footsteps: forget the data and watch replays of race videos. Closely.
His latest interview with Racing Post is behind a paywall, but the basis of Veitch’s new perspective is that the betting market has changed, with the advent of betting exchanges, rule changes and so many people adopting his very own strategy of sifting numbers. Today there are far fewer chances to beat the market than there were in his heyday.
He says: “…the value is probably swinging back around to a very good video analyst.
“Studying the form with a few clicks, you’re going to struggle to beat them [i.e. bookmakers, commercial tipsters and other professional punters]. But if you can make yourself into a good enough video analyst, you will spot things that those programmes won’t.”
Veitch adds: “You need to have your own opinion. That doesn’t work by simply taking the opinion of a form organisation – that will have been fed into those computers.
“You need to develop your eye. You listen, you watch. Dare I say it, you take a share in a horse, you learn the business and you get to the point you can form your own opinion and take on the market.”
Revolutionary stuff. Imagine relying on hunches, intuition and your eye for a fit horse?
Veitch, in his 2009 autobiography Enemy Number One, described himself as “Britain’s most feared professional punter” (to bookmakers). Over the years, he has identified logic as his main punting weapon.
He has also emphasised the need for long hours of extremely hard work in studying form – even to the point of honing mental skills with healthy diet and plenty of exercise, in other words going into athletic training for the job.
It must be said, though, that Veitch’s own “logic” in describing his modus operandi is often impossible to follow. Also, in his book, he stops short of revealing the nitty gritty of his formula.
What is indisputable is that he has made a shedload of money out of playing the geegees.
Veitch grew up in a horse racing family and started studying mathematics at Cambridge University, but soon found himself devoting more time to horses than to lectures.
A phone tipping line was wildly successful, bringing in more than £10,000 a month by the time he started his third year of study. He was noticed by billionaire racehorse owner/breeder Michael Tabor who hired him to mark his card. That was the end of varsity. By the end of his three-year association with Tabor, Veitch was very rich with a reputation of being Britain’s most successful professional gambler.
His book said he made more than £10-million from betting between 1999 and 2007. Rewards included a private helicopter, a Ferrari and prime London property.
Every bookmaker in the country banned him.
Criminals noticed. He had to go into hiding when threatened by extortionists demanding £70,000 to compensate for alleged losing tips. They threatened to cut off his legs. The culprits went to jail after Veitch testified against them through a bulletproof screen.
Interestingly, Veitch’s biggest betting coup came not from exhaustive data analysis but from an old-fashioned “line-up”.
He anonymously owned a share of a horse called Exponential. On debut, the gelding finished last, but Veitch and the trainer knew he was better than that and proceeded to get him fighting fit.
For a minor race at Nottingham in 2004, bookmakers offered Exponential at 100-1. Veitch swung into action five minutes before the start. Unable to place a bet in person, he had an army of agents back the horse at bookmakers throughout the country – in a clever three-phase operation that involved taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities as the bookies slashed their prices in panic when they realised the coup was on.
Exponential started at 8-1, duly won and Veitch collected an estimated £250,000.
Download our app and read this and other great stories on the move. Available for Android and iOS.
