It's time for the Gold Cup. Picture: iStock
Every “expert” has his or her own idea about what counts in the World Pool Gold Cup, Durban’s famous old endurance race that is staged once more at Greyville on Sunday. Stamina pedigree is the most valued factor, but that’s not much use in the quest for the winner of the 2023 instalment as every runner has staying blood from one ancestor or another.
We must turn to the handicapping for better clues. As underlined in the recent Durban July, a couple of kilos here or there can make a big difference to the result.
Trouble is, most of the field for the 3200m contest are under sufferance – thanks to South Africa simply not having many well-proven stayers in racing. The decades-long drift towards speed rather than stamina is underlined once again.
More than half the field of 15 have never even tried the Gold Cup trip, so there has to be a lot of guesswork if we are to come up with a winner.
The hot favourite is Sean Tarry-trained Future Pearl, a three-year-old by Futura out of an Al Mufti mare.
There was a time when three-year-olds didn’t run in the Gold Cup, let alone win it – so strong were the staying ranks. But a few youngsters have prevailed in recent years, so that’s an adage fading into forgotten history.
Nonetheless, contesting a marathon against older, seasoned horses is still a challenge for any youngster.
Tarry thinks 55kg is a hefty lump for Future Pearl to carry and believes he is out at the weights against rivals such as stable companion Nebraas and top-weight Shangani. Both these older horses have won the Gold Cup – in 2021 and 2022 respectively – so are essential inclusions in exotic bets.
Future Pearl gets 5kg from Nebraas and 4kg from Shangani. Tarry’s views notwithstanding, this would seem like an even match for a high-class staying three-year-old.
But what sets Future Pearl truly apart is the manner of his two recent victories in the Gold Bowl at Turffontein and the Gold Vase at Greyville – open-company features that he completely dominated. These performances proclaimed him as a rapidly improving horse – following a fair effort in the SA Derby in April.
Many pundits reckon the draw is immaterial in a long race like the Gold Cup, with plenty of time and space to improve position. Tarry begs to differ. He has declared himself happy with Future Pearl’s No 3 starting gate, easing concerns about being trapped on the inside rail in a slow procession around the triangular circuit.
Combine all that with the attentions of form jockey Richard Fourie and Future Pearl is hard to oppose.
Outside of the three horses mentioned so far, there are slim pickings for old school Gold Cup aficionados raised on a diet of upset results in the country’s premier racehorse marathon.
Aragosta from the Mike de Kock stable is rated to finish up with the leading trio, but he is inconsistent and it’s hard to place much confidence in him having a good day.
Crimson King, from Brett Crawford’s in-form Highveld satellite yard, got the better of Aragosta in the July consolation race but now has a 5kg weight turnaround and might not have the class and stamina to do it again here.
Justin Snaith’s One Way Traffic has acquired a decent merit rating by running a lot of honest races, but he has had a very disappointing KwaZulu-Natal season thus far. Could the fitting of blinkers for the first time in his 22nd start be a gamechanger?
Then there are the longshots. Raiseahallelujah, Arumugam, Black Thorn and Sea Master are the likely candidates for some betting value.
3 Future Pearl, 7 Nebraas, 6 Shangani, 1 Raiseahallelujah
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