Let’s see if I’m right
By the time you read this column, most of you would have voted in the municipal elections, but it will be interesting to see how your votes shape this country for the future, whether for the good or bad.
But looking at the intensity of the campaigning and the hotly-contested metros, those being Joburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay, I can foresee the results of the elections producing no outright winners, especially in Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay.
I think in Nelson Mandela Bay, the Democratic Alliance (DA) has a chance, especially with the huge factor of the so-called ‘coloured vote’ coming into play. But, having said that, the DA too may not win it outright. It will have to form a coalition to govern the metro and the million-dollar question is, which party?
The DA and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are miles apart in ideology and their strategy of doing things, and I cannot see not see them in a coalition, let alone a working coalition.
I think the title of king-maker in metro could fall on the United Democratic Movement (UDM) of General Bantu Holomisa. The EFF is not so strong in that area and the African National Congress (ANC) and the DA are very strong, although voter apathy seems to have swung in favour of the latter.
When it realised power was slipping away from its hands in a metro named after its iconic leader and former president, the late Nelson Mandela, the ANC quickly moved in to try and quell the dissent, but whether that was enough to douse the fires … only the results of the elections will tell.
In Johannesburg, I cannot see the Democratic Alliance winning this metro outright. This is one of those safe havens for the ANC, along with the eThekwini metro. But with the growing influence and presence of the EFF in the area, the metro may need a coalition government to function. Herman Mashaba has put up a brave fight, but he does not command the same stature as Parks Tau. And hence here, the king-maker will be the EFF.
Polokwane is a forgone conclusion that it will fall to the EFF and so will many of the local municipalities in the province. But when it comes to Tshwane, which is a three-horse race, the king-maker may strangely turn out to be the former ruling party in the metro.
The proximity of Tshwane to Polokwane and the growing influence of the EFF could easily tilt the scales in favour of the red berets and hence I choose the ANC for king-maker, considering the turmoil that followed the appointment of Thoko Didiza as the mayoral candidate.
I suspect that the fires have not died down, and the people might have taken a conscious decision against being shot and maimed in protests, which might see them vote for other parties just to spite the ANC.
But when all is said and done, we’re going to see a huge power shift in a lot of municipalities, especially the small ones, and this will be a wake-up call for the ANC to clean up its corrupt act or else …
